Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe
Value found
+1.1% edgeSturm Graz win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 40'Nélson Semedo
- 45'A. Brown
- 61'Axel Kayombo (N. Weiper)
- 61'Seedy Jatta (Belmin Beganović)
- 61'Arjan Malić (Jurgen Heil)
- 62'M. Greenwood (O. Aydin)
- 62'Nélson Semedo (Mert Müldür)
- 63'Marco Asensio (Fred)
- 66'Talisca
- 70'Jon Gorenc Stanković (R. Fosso)
- 73'N'Golo Kanté (I. Yuksek)
- 77'Talisca (V. Muriqi)
- 79'P. Petrovic (Paul-Friedrich Koller)
- 81'F. Ingolitsch
- 85'Jeyland Mitchell
- 90'Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Lineups
- 1.4
- Goals/game
- 2.3
- 0.7
- Conceded/game
- 1.5
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Recent form suggests Sturm Graz has been solid, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches, but they have faced lower-tier teams. In contrast, Fenerbahçe's attack has been prolific with an average of 2.3 goals per match over their last ten games, despite some defensive vulnerabilities. The historical dominance of Fenerbahçe in previous encounters adds to their advantage in this match.
- Sturm Graz unbeaten in last 5 matches including 3 wins
- Fenerbahçe has a higher scoring average in recent matches
- Fenerbahçe has won the last 3 encounters against Sturm Graz
Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Fenerbahçe
- Strong recent formSturm Graz
Sturm Graz are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 4 wins.
4W 1D 0L - Sharper attackFenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.3 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.3/game - Tighter defenseSturm Graz
Sturm Graz are conceding just 0.7 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.7/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Fenerbahçe at 50% — final result was Fenerbahçe win, Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Sturm Graz have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Fenerbahçe have averaged 2.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. Hernandez
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?+
Our AI model favors Fenerbahçe to win, with a 50% probability (Draw 25%, Sturm Graz 25%).
What time does Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 11, 2026, 6:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).