Stuttgart vs Bergischer
Value found
+156.2% edgeDraw
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Score by half
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 Stuttgart | 13 | 17 | 30 |
 Bergischer | 10 | 19 | 29 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 30-28
Analysis suggests that Stuttgart enters this match with a slight edge, holding a better recent home win rate at 56%. The previous head-to-head results indicate closely matched teams, with draws also being a factor to consider; thus a draw probability of 22% reflects that tight competition. Ultimately, the numbers favor Stuttgart but a close contest can be expected.
- Stuttgart has won 4 of their last 10 matches while Bergischer has won 5 of theirs, indicating competitive form.
- Historically, the results between these teams have been closely contested, with Stuttgart edging the record slightly 3-2 in their last five encounters.
- Stuttgart boasts a 56% home win rate this season, suggesting a strong advantage when playing at home.
Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Stuttgart
- Strong home recordStuttgart
Stuttgart have won 11 of their last 20 home matches.
11/20 home wins - Weak away recordBergischer
Bergischer have won 4 of their last 20 away matches.
4/20 away wins - Historical edgeStuttgart
Stuttgart have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Higher league positionStuttgart
Stuttgart sit 11 places above Bergischer in the table.
#4 vs #15
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Stuttgart at 47% — final result was Stuttgart win, Stuttgart 30-29 Bergischer.
Predicted score was 30-28.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (56/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Stuttgart have averaged 29.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Bergischer have averaged 29 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Stuttgart are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Bergischer.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Goals spread
| Line | Stuttgart | Bergischer |
|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | 2.28 | 1.53 |
| -6 | 2.21▲ | 1.53▼ |
| -5.5 | 2.06▲ | 1.70▼ |
| -5 | 1.96▲ | 1.76▼ |
| -4.5 | 1.79▲ | 1.95▼ |
| -4 | 1.71▲ | 2.03▼ |
| -3.5 | 1.57▲ | 2.27▼ |
| -3 | 1.47▲ | 2.35▼ |
Total goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 58.5 | 1.59 | 2.21 |
| 59 | 1.55▼ | 2.17▲ |
| 59.5 | 1.71▼ | 2.04▲ |
| 60 | 1.75▼ | 1.98▲ |
| 60.5 | 1.89▼ | 1.83▲ |
| 61 | 1.98▼ | 1.75▲ |
| 61.5 | 2.09▼ | 1.66▲ |
| 62 | 2.17▼ | 1.55▲ |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kiel | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 2 | — |
| 2 |  Fuchse Berlin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | — |
| 3 |  Flensburg-H. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | — |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | — |
| 5 |  Goppingen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 6 |  Gummersbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 7 |  Hamburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 8 |  SC Magdeburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 9 |  Rhein-Neckar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 10 |  HSG Wetzlar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 11 |  HBW Balingen-Weilstetten | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 12 |  Erlangen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 13 |  Bietigheim-Metterzimmern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 14 |  Hannover-Burgdorf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 15 | Bergischer | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | — |
| 16 |  MT Melsungen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | — |
| 17 |  Eisenach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | — |
| 18 |  Lemgo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 | — |
More Bundesliga predictions
GoppingenErlangenGummersbachSC MagdeburgHannover-BurgdorfRhein-NeckarHSG WetzlarBietigheim-MetterzimmernFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Stuttgart vs Bergischer?+
Our AI model favors Stuttgart to win, with a 47% probability (Bergischer 31%).
What time does Stuttgart vs Bergischer kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 28, 2026, 5:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by half in Stuttgart vs Bergischer?+
Stuttgart: 13-17. Bergischer: 10-19. Final: 30-29.