Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs — NFL

NFL· Week 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

16–15Full-time

Kansas City Chiefs

LWWWWLPoints 168-211

WLLLLDPoints 144-192

Home10W 0D 10L(495-440)

Away7W 0D 13L(403-457)

Raymond James Stadium

Value found

+15.2% edge

Kansas City Chiefs win

2.5AI fair odds

2.88Bookmaker odds

+15.2%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Kickoff

In Progress

Final

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	0	7	9	16
Kansas City Chiefs	0	9	6	0	15

AI match analysis

Tampa Bay Buccaneers win

40%

Draw

20%

Kansas City Chiefs win

40%

Predicted score: 20-20

Data suggests a balanced matchup between the Buccaneers and Chiefs, with both teams struggling recently. The Chiefs have lost their last five outings, while the Buccaneers have managed two wins in their last five. Historically, their head-to-head encounters show a tightly contested rivalry, emphasizing the potential for a close contest.

Kansas City Chiefs have lost last 5 matches.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 2 of their last 5 matches.
Head-to-head record is evenly matched with both teams having wins in recent encounters.

AI ConfidenceLow confidence

30/100

Confidence is low because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tighter defenseKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs are conceding just 19.2 points per game over their recent matches.
19.2/game conceded
Good recent formTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Poor recent formKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L
Historical edgeKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Below-average model confidence
Overall model confidence for this match is 30/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 40% — final result was Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-15 Kansas City Chiefs.

Predicted score was 20-20.

The model itself only flagged this as a low confidence pick (30/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ✓1.41market 70.8% · model 40%

Kansas City Chiefs2.88market 34.7% · model 40%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have averaged 16.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Kansas City Chiefs have averaged 14.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Kansas City Chiefs.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Tampa Bay Buccaneers1.41best 1.44AI 40%

Kansas City Chiefs2.88best 3.00AI 40%

Point spread

Line	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Kansas City Chiefs
-6	1.93	1.77
-5.5	1.90	1.88
-5	1.86	1.90
-4.5	1.87	1.88
-3.5	1.87	1.89
-0.5	1.89	1.81
+1	1.85	1.83
+2	1.80	1.91

Total points

Line	Over	Under
35	1.67	2.05
35.5	1.81	1.91
36	1.75	1.95
36.5	1.83	1.93
37	1.90	1.91
37.5	1.93	1.83
38	1.95	1.75
39	2.05	1.67

Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Model vs market

Tampa Bay Buccaneers win-27.1pp

40%

Market

67.1%

Kansas City Chiefs win+7.1pp

40%

Market

32.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.