Tapatío vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX

Liga de Expansión MX· Apertura - 5

Tapatío

4–2Full-time

Mineros de Zacatecas

WLLLWDGoals 15-162nd in league

WWLDDWGoals 19-117th in league

Home2W 1D 0L(5-2)

Away0W 1D 1L(4-6)

Estadio Akron, Zapopan · Capacity 46,609 · artificial turf · Referee: L. A. Garcia Olvera

Value found

+4% edge

Tapatío win

2AI fair odds

2.08Bookmaker odds

+4%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

6'J. Cano
6'J. Cano
11'D. Villaseca
11'D. Villaseca
22'D. Villaseca (G. Garcia)
23'D. Villaseca (G. Garcia)
32'L. Hernandez
45'G. Garcia
54'G. Garcia (L. Ledesma)
54'J. Uribe (L. Jimenez)
56'L. Hernandez (P. Padilla)
60'J. Cano
60'J. Cano
62'J. Machado (O. Mazatan)
63'Angel Chavez
63'L. Duran
69'D. Villaseca (C. Medina)
69'Angel Chavez (R. Parra)
72'A. Villalobos (J. Jimenez)
72'J. Ávila (M. Cordero)
72'E. Carballo (L. Sandoval)
77'A. Garcia
81'J. Hernandez (L. Ledesma)
82'P. Padilla (K. Magana)
84'O. Mazatan (Joaquín Esquivel)
85'J. Hernandez (L. Torres)
90+2'C. Medina (L. Jimenez)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

TapatíoMineros de Zacatecas

1.5
Goals/game: 1.9; 1.6
Conceded/game: 1.1

AI match analysis

Tapatío win

50%

Draw

24%

Mineros de Zacatecas win

26%

60.1%BTTS

58.8%Over 2.5

17.4%Tapatío clean sheet

27.3%Mineros de Zacatecas clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

The data suggests a competitive matchup with Tapatío slightly favored based on their home form, though they have struggled historically against Mineros de Zacatecas, losing three of the last five encounters. Mineros de Zacatecas comes into this match in slightly better form, remaining undefeated in their last three games, and boasts a strong away record despite not yet securing a win this season. The predicted score reflects Tapatío's potential to score at home while acknowledging Mineros' scoring capability.

Mineros de Zacatecas undefeated in their last 3 matches
Tapatío has lost their last 3 matches against Mineros de Zacatecas
Tapatío averages 1.7 goals scored but concedes 1.9 per game in the last 10 matches
Mineros de Zacatecas has a better recent goal difference of +6 compared to Tapatío's +1

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

87/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Tapatío

Strong home recordTapatío
Tapatío have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.
2/3 home wins
Weak away recordMineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas have won 0 of their last 2 away matches.
0/2 away wins
Tighter defenseMineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas are conceding just 1.1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game conceded
Sharper attackMineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas are averaging 1.9 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.9/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Tapatío at 50% — final result was Tapatío win, Tapatío 4-2 Mineros de Zacatecas.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (87/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Tapatío ✓2.08market 48.1% · model 50%

Mineros de Zacatecas3.07market 32.5% · model 26%

Draw3.44market 29.1% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Tapatío have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Mineros de Zacatecas have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Tapatío wins

0Draws

4Mineros de Zacatecas wins

12-9Goals

Mineros de Zacatecas

2–1Mar 29, 2026, 11:00 PM

Tapatío

2–3Oct 19, 2025, 11:00 PM

Mineros de Zacatecas

Tapatío

0–1Feb 23, 2025, 6:00 PM

Mineros de Zacatecas

3–1Sep 7, 2024, 1:00 AM

Tapatío

Mineros de Zacatecas

0–4Jan 19, 2024, 3:05 AM

Tapatío

1–0Sep 8, 2023, 1:05 AM

Mineros de Zacatecas

Tapatío

2–0Jan 7, 2022, 11:00 PM

Mineros de Zacatecas

0–1Oct 13, 2021, 10:00 PM

Tapatío

Odds comparison

Match winner

Tapatío2.08▲best 2.20

Draw3.44▼best 3.60

Mineros de Zacatecas3.07▼best 3.37

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.61▼best 1.67

Under 2.52.18best 2.30

Both teams to score

Yes1.53▼best 1.57

No2.31▲best 2.40

Double chance

Tapatío/Draw1.31▲best 1.36

Tapatío/Mineros de Zacatecas1.25best 1.29

Draw/Mineros de Zacatecas1.67▼best 1.73

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Tapatío2.08▼ 0.03

Draw3.44▼ 0.10

Mineros de Zacatecas3.07▲ 0.09

20 Aug – 24 Aug

Model vs market

Tapatío win+6.2pp

50%

Market

43.8%

Draw-2.5pp

24%

Market

26.5%

Mineros de Zacatecas win-3.7pp

26%

Market

29.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.