Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan — Super League

Super League· Regular Season - 23

Tianjin Teda

2–4Full-time

Beijing Guoan

DWLLLDGoals 12-1214th in league

LDLLWDGoals 26-172nd in league

Home3W 3D 5L(17-18)

Away5W 4D 2L(21-14)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

16'Fábio Abreu (Tze-Nam Yue)
45+2'Dawhan (Fábio Abreu)
46'Wang Qiuming (Xianjun Wang)
46'Fan Yang (Jiahui Huang)
46'Yuning Zhang (Yongjing Cao)
49'Yongjing Cao
53'Fábio Abreu (Serginho)
62'Guilherme Schettine (Junxian Liu)
62'Serginho (Liyu Yang)
63'Zhenghao Wang (Shengpan Ji)
63'Wang Gang (Shuangjie Fan)
70'Junxian Liu
79'Abduhamit Abdugheni (Lei Li)
79'Fábio Abreu (Xizhe Zhang)
84'Ming-Him Sun (Shi Yan)
87'Alberto Quiles (Bruno Xadas)
88'Yongjing Cao

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Tianjin TedaBeijing Guoan

1.2
Goals/game: 2.6; 1.2
Conceded/game: 1.7

AI match analysis

Tianjin Teda win

33.75%

Draw

26.35%

Beijing Guoan win

39.91%

65.1%BTTS

65.1%Over 2.5

15%Tianjin Teda clean sheet

23.5%Beijing Guoan clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests that Beijing Guoan enters this match in better form, with an unbeaten run in their last five games compared to Tianjin Teda's single victory in that span. Additionally, Guoan's goal-scoring average of 2.4 in their last ten matches indicates a potent attack, which could exploit Tianjin's defensive vulnerabilities. The recent head-to-head history, featuring several draws, suggests a competitive matchup, but the numbers favor an away victory.

Beijing Guoan unbeaten in last 5 matches (WWDDW)
Tianjin Teda has only 1 win in last 5 matches
Beijing Guoan scored 2.4 goals on average in last 10 matches
Head-to-head matches are evenly split with 2 draws in last 5 encounters

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

72/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Beijing Guoan

Poor recent formTianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
0W 2D 3L
Sharper attackBeijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.6/game
Higher league positionBeijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan sit 12 places above Tianjin Teda in the table.
#2 vs #14
Tighter defenseTianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Beijing Guoan at 39.91% — final result was Beijing Guoan win, Tianjin Teda 2-4 Beijing Guoan.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (72/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Beijing Guoan ✓2.33market 43% · model 39.91%

Tianjin Teda2.80market 35.7% · model 33.75%

Draw3.44market 29.1% · model 26.35%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Tianjin Teda have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Beijing Guoan have averaged 2.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

0Tianjin Teda wins

4Draws

4Beijing Guoan wins

6-11Goals

Beijing Guoan

2–2Aug 3, 2025, 11:35 AM

Tianjin Teda

2–2Apr 2, 2025, 11:35 AM

Beijing Guoan

2–0Jul 21, 2024, 11:35 AM

Tianjin Teda

0–1Apr 30, 2024, 11:35 AM

Beijing Guoan

Tianjin Teda

0–0Aug 9, 2023, 11:35 AM

Beijing Guoan

1–1May 10, 2023, 11:35 AM

Tianjin Teda

1–2Jul 3, 2022, 9:30 AM

Beijing Guoan

1–0Jun 13, 2022, 8:30 AM

Tianjin Teda

Odds comparison

Match winner

Tianjin Teda2.80▼best 3.05

Draw3.44▲best 3.65

Beijing Guoan2.33▲best 2.45

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.67▼best 1.77

Under 2.52.13▲best 2.22

Both teams to score

Yes1.55▼best 1.60

No2.28▲best 2.38

Double chance

Tianjin Teda/Draw1.57▼best 1.65

Tianjin Teda/Beijing Guoan1.27▼best 1.30

Draw/Beijing Guoan1.39▲best 1.44

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.25▼best 1.25

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.75▲best 3.75

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.22▲best 1.22

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.00▼best 4.00

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Tianjin Teda2.80▼ 0.19

Draw3.44▼ 0.06

Beijing Guoan2.33▲ 0.20

12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

Tianjin Teda win+0.6pp

33.75%

Market

33.1%

Draw-0.6pp

26.35%

Market

27%

Beijing Guoan win0pp

39.91%

Market

39.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.