Toluca vs Austin
Match events
- 29'B. Sabovic
- 40'J. Rosales
- 46'C. Ramirez (M. Desler)
- 50'O. Svatok
- 52'Hélinho
- 66'Nicolás Castro
- 67'J. Gallagher (P. Placheta)
- 67'O. Svatok (Jorge Alastuey)
- 69'F. Pereira
- 76'Nicolás Castro (Víctor Guzmán)
- 76'Alexis Vega (J. Diaz Price)
- 78'E. Torres (F. Torres)
- 78'B. Sabovic (B. Vazquez)
- 81'Jesús Ricardo Angulo (E. del Villar)
- 84'B. A. Garcia Caprizo
- 86'Hélinho (P. Pérez)
- 90+7'J. Diaz Price
Lineups
- 1.4
- Goals/game
- 1.3
- 1.1
- Conceded/game
- 1.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
Data suggests Toluca has a stronger home advantage, remaining unbeaten in their last three home fixtures. Despite Austin's recent victory against Seattle, they've struggled defensively with higher goals conceded. Additionally, the scoring averages favor Toluca, indicating they could edge out a victory.
- Toluca unbeaten in last 3 home games
- Austin has conceded 1.6 goals on average in last 10 matches
- Toluca's xG is higher at 1.47 compared to Austin's 0.81
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Toluca
- Tighter defenseToluca
Toluca are conceding just 1.1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game conceded - Sharper attackToluca
Toluca are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Toluca at 56% — final result was Toluca win, Toluca 2-0 Austin.
Predicted score was 2-1.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (73/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Toluca have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Austin have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Toluca
Austin
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Toluca vs Austin?+
Our AI model favors Toluca to win, with a 56% probability (Draw 24%, Austin 20%).
What time does Toluca vs Austin kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).