Trefelin vs Caernarfon Town — Premier League

Premier League· Regular Season - 4

Trefelin

0–2Full-time

Caernarfon Town

LGoals 0-616th in league

DLLWWWGoals 15-156th in league

Home0W 0D 2L(0-6)

Away2W 0D 0L(4-1)

Ynys Park, Cwmafan · Capacity 1,000 · grass · Referee: D. Morgan

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

12'J. Jones
13'O. Evans
37'Z. Clarke
42'D. Gosset (Paulo Mendes)
72'A. Cieslewicz (C. Marriott)
72'T. Brock (K. Georgievsky)
79'D. John (R. Piper)
81'J. Piggott (D. Smith)
81'O. Evans (Offrande Zanzala)
87'L. Ware (C. Saunders)
87'J. Jones (M. Thomas)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

TrefelinCaernarfon Town

0.0
Goals/game: 1.5; 6.0
Conceded/game: 1.5

AI match analysis

Trefelin win

10.55%

Draw

16.12%

Caernarfon Town win

73.33%

51.5%BTTS

82.6%Over 2.5

2.4%Trefelin clean sheet

47.2%Caernarfon Town clean sheet

Predicted score: 0-2

The statistics suggest a considerable disadvantage for Trefelin, who have struggled significantly this season, recording losses and a poor scoring record. In contrast, Caernarfon Town has shown resilience, winning their last several matches with a solid defensive performance, particularly when playing away.

Trefelin has lost all 3 matches this season with a goal difference of -12
Caernarfon Town has won their last 2 away matches without conceding
Bookmaker-implied probabilities indicate a strong favoring of Caernarfon Town to win

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

93/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Caernarfon Town

Weak home recordTrefelin
Trefelin have won 0 of their last 2 home matches.
0/2 home wins
Strong away recordCaernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town have won 2 of their last 2 away matches.
2/2 away wins
Tighter defenseCaernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town are conceding just 1.5 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game conceded
Poor recent formTrefelin
Trefelin have lost 1 of their last 1 matches.
0W 0D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Limited recent-match sample
Trefelin has fewer than 5 recent matches on record, so recent-form signals here are based on a small sample.
AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pick✓ Exact score

We picked Caernarfon Town at 73.33% — final result was Caernarfon Town win, Trefelin 0-2 Caernarfon Town.

Predicted score was 0-2.

This was a high confidence pick (93/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Caernarfon Town ✓1.27market 78.5% · model 73.33%

Draw5.13market 19.5% · model 16.12%

Trefelin8.02market 12.5% · model 10.55%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Trefelin have averaged 0 goals scored per game over their last 1 matches.
Caernarfon Town have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Trefelin8.02▼best 9.00

Draw5.13▼best 5.80

Caernarfon Town1.27▲best 1.35

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.45▼best 1.53

Under 2.52.46▲best 2.62

Both teams to score

Yes1.79▼best 1.85

No1.87▲best 1.95

Double chance

Trefelin/Draw3.29▼best 3.60

Trefelin/Caernarfon Town1.11▲best 1.17

Draw/Caernarfon Town1.04best 1.09

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.73▼best 1.73

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.00▲best 2.00

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.05▼best 1.05

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes8.50▲best 8.50

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Trefelin8.02▲ 0.68

Draw5.13▲ 0.06

Caernarfon Town1.27▼ 0.02

19 Aug – 21 Aug

Model vs market

Trefelin win-0.7pp

10.55%

Market

11.3%

Draw-1.5pp

16.12%

Market

17.6%

Caernarfon Town win+2.2pp

73.33%

Market

71.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.