Tresean Gore vs Vicente Luque

UFC· UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry· Middleweight
LWW
Mr. Vicious6-4-0 (W-L-D)2 KO, 3 SUB
Ht 183cmWt 86kgReach 191cmStance Switch
MMA LAB
WLWL
The Silent Assassin23-12-1 (W-L-D)11 KO, 9 SUB
Ht 180cmWt 77kgReach 192cmStance Orthodox
Kill Cliff FC

Value found

+5.5% edge

Tresean Gore win

1.79AI fair odds
1.88Bookmaker odds
+5.5%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

AI fight analysis

Tresean Gore win
56%
Vicente Luque win
44%

Data suggests a favorable outlook for Tresean Gore, particularly gauging his higher submission finishing rate and training environment which supports grappling. While Vicente Luque has substantial knockout power, his recent performance could indicate vulnerability, contributing to a higher win probability for Gore.

  • Tresean Gore has a 50% submission win rate, finishing 3 of 6 victories by submission.
  • Vicente Luque has finished 11 of his 23 victories by knockout, indicating strong finishing skills.
  • Gore trains at MMA LAB, known for producing skilled grapplers, which may favor his submission game against Luque.
  • Luque's recent performance shows inconsistency, with 3 losses in his last 5 fights.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
73/100

Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two fighters is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Tresean Gore

  • More experiencedVicente Luque

    Vicente Luque has fought 36 professional fights, 26 more than their opponent tonight.

    36 pro fights
  • Superior career recordVicente Luque

    Vicente Luque carries a 23-12-1 professional record, a 64% win rate.

    23-12-1
  • High finishing rateVicente Luque

    Vicente Luque has finished 20 of 23 career wins by knockout or submission, a 87% finish rate.

    87% finish rate
  • Reach advantageVicente Luque

    Vicente Luque has a 1cm reach advantage over their opponent, a real edge in striking exchanges at range.

    192cm reach

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 56% probability, so this is a closely-matched fight and confidence remains moderate.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Tresean Gore1.88best 1.93AI 56%
Vicente Luque1.91best 1.96AI 44%

Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Tresean Gore1.88 0.15
Vicente Luque1.91 0.20
12 Aug15 Aug

Model vs market

Tresean Gore win+5.6pp
AI
56%
Market
50.4%
Vicente Luque win-5.6pp
AI
44%
Market
49.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

More UFC predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Tresean Gore vs Vicente Luque?+

Our AI model favors Tresean Gore to win, with a 56% probability (Vicente Luque 44%).

What time does Tresean Gore vs Vicente Luque start?+

This fight took place on Aug 15, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What are the career records of Tresean Gore and Vicente Luque?+

Tresean Gore is 6-4-0 (W-L-D). Vicente Luque is 23-12-1 (W-L-D).