Twente vs Qarabag
Value found
+3.8% edgeQarabag win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 23'R. Propper
- 28'A. Adelgaard
- 28'Matheus Silva
- 34'D. Weidmann
- 46'R. Propper (M. Bruns)
- 52'Kady Borges (M. Qurbanly)
- 59'R. Zerrouki
- 61'M. Pjaca (Kristian Hlynsson)
- 61'W. Weghorst (Sam Lammers)
- 66'Sam Lammers
- 67'D. Rots
- 76'M. Qurbanly (Dani Bolt)
- 83'D. Weidmann (L. Vennegoor of Hesselink)
- 84'A. Adelgaard (F. Thorvaldsen)
- 1.8
- Goals/game
- 1.6
- 1.8
- Conceded/game
- 2.9
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
The analysis indicates Twente is in decent form at home, having not lost their last three matches there, while Qarabag's defense appears vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.9 goals per game. The last two encounters between these teams have ended in draws, suggesting a competitive edge is needed for a clear victor. Overall, the numbers favor Twente, especially playing at home.
- Twente unbeaten in last 3 home games
- Qarabag has conceded an average of 2.9 goals in their last 10 matches
- Recent head-to-heads show two draws in the last two encounters
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Twente
- Tighter defenseTwente
Twente are conceding just 1.8 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game conceded - Poor recent formQarabag
Qarabag have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Sharper attackTwente
Twente are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Twente at 60% — final result was Qarabag win, Twente 0-1 Qarabag.
Predicted score was 2-1.
This was a high confidence pick (86/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Twente have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Qarabag have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Twente
Qarabag
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Twente vs Qarabag?+
Our AI model favors Twente to win, with a 60% probability (Draw 21%, Qarabag 19%).
What time does Twente vs Qarabag kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 20, 2026, 6:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).