U. Catolica vs Nublense — Primera División

Primera División· Regular Season - 20

U. Catolica

1–2Full-time

Nublense

WLWDLWGoals 11-93rd in league

LDLWDWGoals 12-155th in league

Home5W 2D 3L(26-14)

Away4W 4D 1L(12-11)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

7'Fernando Zuqui
11'Diego Sanhueza
43'J. Giani
45+4'Matías Palavecino
46'Diego Sanhueza (Gabriel Graciani)
46'J. Giani (J. Martínez)
46'D. Gonzalez (S. Arancibia)
48'E. Calderon (Lucas Molina)
65'Clemente Montes (D. Corral)
67'E. Calderon (Ignacio Jeraldino)
72'L. Reyes
74'N. Pérez
75'F. Zampedri
76'Lucas Molina (Fernando Ovelar)
76'Manuel Rivera (C. Mansilla)
81'Matías Plaza (F. Campos)
81'Matías Palavecino (Gary Medel)
85'J. Martínez
88'Gary Medel
88'Ignacio Jeraldino (Fernando Ovelar)
90+1'Matías Palavecino

Lineups unavailable for this match.

U. CatolicaNublense

1.1
Goals/game: 1.2; 0.9
Conceded/game: 1.5

AI match analysis

U. Catolica win

54%

Draw

26%

Nublense win

20%

47.3%BTTS

41.7%Over 2.5

35%U. Catolica clean sheet

27.3%Nublense clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

Data suggests a slight edge for U. Catolica based on their stronger home performance and head-to-head dominance. Nublense's recent defensive vulnerabilities could be a concern, as they have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game in their last 10 matches. With U. Catolica's recent form showing positive results at home, the predicted score slightly favors the home team.

U. Catolica is 5th in home standings with a 5W 2D 2L record this season
Nublense has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game in their last 10 matches
U. Catolica has won 4 of the last 5 encounters against Nublense

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

89/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors U. Catolica

Tighter defenseU. Catolica
U. Catolica are conceding just 0.9 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.9/game conceded
Historical edgeU. Catolica
U. Catolica have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Good recent formU. Catolica
U. Catolica have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Strong home recordU. Catolica
U. Catolica have won 5 of their last 10 home matches.
5/10 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked U. Catolica at 54% — final result was Nublense win, U. Catolica 1-2 Nublense.

Predicted score was 1-0.

This was a high confidence pick (89/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

U. Catolica1.68market 59.4% · model 54%

Draw3.58market 27.9% · model 26%

Nublense ✓4.79market 20.9% · model 20%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

U. Catolica have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Nublense have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4U. Catolica wins

2Draws

2Nublense wins

10-11Goals

U. Catolica

1–0Oct 9, 2025, 11:30 PM

Nublense

1–1Mar 8, 2025, 9:00 PM

U. Catolica

Nublense

1–2Jul 28, 2024, 7:00 PM

U. Catolica

0–1Feb 23, 2024, 10:00 PM

Nublense

U. Catolica

2–1Aug 26, 2023, 9:30 PM

Nublense

1–2Mar 3, 2023, 11:30 PM

U. Catolica

2–2Oct 8, 2022, 6:00 PM

Nublense

4–0May 8, 2022, 9:30 PM

U. Catolica

Odds comparison

Match winner

U. Catolica1.68▲best 1.75

Draw3.58▼best 3.80

Nublense4.79▲best 5.30

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.95▲best 2.09

Under 2.51.82▼best 2.05

Both teams to score

Yes1.87▲best 1.95

No1.83▼best 1.95

Double chance

U. Catolica/Draw1.15▼best 1.19

U. Catolica/Nublense1.24▲best 1.28

Draw/Nublense2.08▼best 2.15

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.50best 2.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.50best 1.50

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes5.50best 5.50

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.14best 1.14

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

U. Catolica1.68▲ 0.04

Draw3.58▼ 0.07

Nublense4.79▲ 0.11

20 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

U. Catolica win-0.9pp

54%

Market

54.9%

Draw+0.2pp

26%

Market

25.8%

Nublense win+0.7pp

20%

Market

19.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.