U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa — Liga MX

Liga MX· Apertura - 5

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1–1Full-time

Necaxa

LWLLLDGoals 11-174th in league

LLLLWLGoals 14-238th in league

Home0W 0D 1L(0-3)

Away0W 0D 1L(1-3)

Match events

37'Pedro Vite
46'Pedro Vite (Israel Luna)
46'Juninho Vieira (L. Herrera)
61'Adalberto Carrasquilla (Alan Medina)
61'Carlos Vargas (M. Zaleta)
61'O. Gonzalez (E. Rodriguez)
72'M. Espindola (J. P. Torres Patino)
73'Cristian Calderón (P. Bennevendo)
76'Julián Carranza (E. Rodriguez)
82'V. Arteaga (Guillermo Martinez)
83'Lorenzo Faravelli (Pedro Pedraza)
88'L. Herrera (Guillermo Martinez)
90+4'Israel Luna
90+5'E. Rodriguez
90'R. Monreal

Lineups

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Necaxa

5-3-23-4-3

Esteban SolariCoach

Martin Varini

AI match analysis

U.N.A.M. - Pumas win

49%

Draw

26%

Necaxa win

25%

64.4%BTTS

63%Over 2.5

21.2%U.N.A.M. - Pumas clean sheet

18.3%Necaxa clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests that U.N.A.M. - Pumas is struggling at home this season with a loss in their only match, while Necaxa's poor away form shows no wins in their last three away games. The last five head-to-head matches have been closely contested, with both teams having a fairly even split in wins. A draw seems plausible given the recent form and historical evidence between the two.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas has a recent home record of 0W 0D 1L this season
Necaxa has lost all three of their last away matches this season
Historically, the last five encounters have resulted in two wins for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and three for Necaxa.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

85/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Tighter defenseU.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas are conceding just 1.7 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.7/game conceded
Historical edgeNecaxa
Necaxa have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Higher league positionU.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit 4 places above Necaxa in the table.
#4 vs #8
Poor recent formU.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pick✓ Exact score

We picked U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 49% — final result was a draw, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-1 Necaxa.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (85/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.93market 51.7% · model 49%

Draw ✓3.56market 28.1% · model 26%

Necaxa3.61market 27.7% · model 25%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

U.N.A.M. - Pumas have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Necaxa have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins

2Draws

4Necaxa wins

7-13Goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

2–2Feb 1, 2024, 3:00 AM

Necaxa

1–0Oct 28, 2023, 1:00 AM

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Necaxa

3–1Feb 16, 2023, 3:05 AM

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1–0Jul 17, 2022, 5:00 PM

Necaxa

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1–3Mar 19, 2022, 11:00 PM

Necaxa

3–0Aug 18, 2021, 2:00 AM

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Necaxa

0–1Apr 10, 2021, 12:30 AM

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1–1Sep 27, 2020, 12:00 AM

Necaxa

Odds comparison

Match winner

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.93▲best 1.98

Draw3.56best 3.75

Necaxa3.61▼best 3.81

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.71▼best 1.78

Under 2.52.09▲best 2.15

Both teams to score

Yes1.61▼best 1.63

No2.17▲best 2.20

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas/Draw1.26▼best 1.30

U.N.A.M. - Pumas/Necaxa1.26▼best 1.29

Draw/Necaxa1.82▲best 1.87

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.88best 5.00

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.16best 1.17

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.36best 1.36

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.95best 3.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.93▲ 0.01

Draw3.56▲ 0.02

Necaxa3.61▲ 0.01

21 Aug – 24 Aug

Model vs market

U.N.A.M. - Pumas win+0.9pp

AI

49%

Market

48.1%

Draw-0.1pp

AI

26%

Market

26.1%

Necaxa win-0.8pp

AI

25%

Market

25.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.