UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys

Primera División· Clausura - 5

UCV Moquegua

1–1Full-time

Sport Boys

LWGoals 2-212th in league

DWLLDWGoals 16-152nd in league

Home0W 3D 0L(3-3)

Away1W 1D 1L(2-2)

Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua · Capacity 21,000 · grass · Referee: D. Huaman

Match events

12'B. Angulo (Y. Zapata)
36'Alexander Lecaros
39'J. Lojas
45'B. Angulo
47'Carlos Liza (J. Alarcon)
48'L. Urruti
55'Carlos Liza
55'R. Chipao
59'Alexander Lecaros (Jeferson Collazos)
69'B. Angulo (C. Ramirez)
70'L. Urruti (Y. Celi)
70'J. Alarcon (C. Cueva)
78'Carlos Liza
78'Carlos Liza
81'R. Chipao (N. Chavez)
81'Jeferson Collazos (E. Lastre)
81'Goal Disallowed - video review — Jeferson Collazos
90+2'P. Erustes (R. Diaz)
90+2'C. Ramirez
90+5'O. Mora (E. Gonzales)
90+6'E. Gonzales
90+6'Hansell Riojas

Lineups

UCV Moquegua

Sport Boys

4-4-24-2-3-1

Jaime SernaCoach

Carlos Desio

Bench (9)

AI match analysis

UCV Moquegua win

31.84%

Draw

31.84%

Sport Boys win

36.33%

51.9%BTTS

46.9%Over 2.5

27.3%UCV Moquegua clean sheet

28.7%Sport Boys clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests that Sport Boys, sitting in 5th place, has a solid form with 7 points from their last 4 games, while UCV Moquegua struggles in the 15th position with no wins thus far. Historically, UCV has not managed to secure a victory at home this season, which may favor Sport Boys as they look to capitalize on their recent successes.

Sport Boys unbeaten in last 3 matches
UCV Moquegua is ranked 15th with only 3 points
Sport Boys has a better recent record with 7 points from 4 matches

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

64/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Sport Boys

Weak home recordUCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua have won 0 of their last 3 home matches.
0/3 home wins
Weak away recordSport Boys
Sport Boys have won 1 of their last 3 away matches.
1/3 away wins
Sharper attackSport Boys
Sport Boys are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game
Higher league positionSport Boys
Sport Boys sit 10 places above UCV Moquegua in the table.
#2 vs #12

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Limited recent-match sample
UCV Moquegua has fewer than 5 recent matches on record, so recent-form signals here are based on a small sample.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 36% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Sport Boys at 36.33% — final result was a draw, UCV Moquegua 1-1 Sport Boys.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (64/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

UCV Moquegua2.44market 41% · model 31.84%

Draw ✓2.89market 34.5% · model 31.84%

Sport Boys3.04market 32.9% · model 36.33%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

UCV Moquegua have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 2 matches.
Sport Boys have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

UCV Moquegua2.44▼best 2.64

Draw2.89▼best 3.15

Sport Boys3.04▲best 3.29

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.39▲best 2.50

Under 2.51.53▼best 1.57

Both teams to score

Yes1.98▲best 2.00

No1.73▼best 1.78

Double chance

UCV Moquegua/Draw1.35▼best 1.50

UCV Moquegua/Sport Boys1.35▲best 1.41

Draw/Sport Boys1.50▲best 1.55

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.36▼best 1.36

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.00▲best 3.00

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.44▲best 1.44

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.62▼best 2.62

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

UCV Moquegua2.44▼ 0.14

Draw2.89▼ 0.10

Sport Boys3.04▲ 0.27

13 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

UCV Moquegua win-6pp

AI

31.84%

Market

37.8%

Draw0pp

AI

31.84%

Market

31.8%

Sport Boys win+6pp

AI

36.33%

Market

30.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.