UCV vs Caracas FC — Primera División

Primera División· Clausura - 4

UCV

0–1Full-time

Caracas FC

LLDWLLGoals 14-174th in league

DWLWDWGoals 15-139th in league

Home1W 1D 1L(6-5)

Away1W 0D 1L(2-3)

Unknown · Referee: F. Briceno

Match events

9'J. S. Hernandez Ochoa
19'R. Hernández (L. Pagano)
28'R. Hernández
31'M. Covea
45+2'S. Gonzalez (S. Gonzalez)
46'Samuel Sosa (D. De Sousa)
46'Edwin Mosquera (J. Alegria)
46'J. S. Hernandez Ochoa (M. Ruiz)
46'A. Gonzalez (V. Rodríguez)
51'L. Pagano (N. Vaquer)
57'S. Gonzalez (I. Gudiño)
57'M. Covea (J. Uribe)
61'N. Vaquer
65'J. Uribe
67'K. Silva
68'R. Romo
71'J. Uribe
75'W. Correa (R. Lezama)
76'A. Villarreal (M. Marquez)
82'F. Sole (R. Sarli)
90'J. Zapata (J. Zapata)

Lineups

AI match analysis

UCV win

43%

Draw

28%

Caracas FC win

29%

59.1%BTTS

56.6%Over 2.5

20.2%UCV clean sheet

25.9%Caracas FC clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests that UCV has a strong home advantage, remaining unbeaten in their last four home matches. In contrast, Caracas FC has not yet secured an away point this season, which could impact their performance. Historically, UCV has fared well against Caracas in recent matches, winning five of their last encounters, which may contribute to a predicted score of 2-1 in favor of the home team.

UCV unbeaten in last 4 home matches
Caracas FC has no away wins this season
Head-to-head record shows UCV winning 5 of the last 5 encounters

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

78/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors UCV

Weak home recordUCV
UCV have won 1 of their last 3 home matches.
1/3 home wins
Strong away recordCaracas FC
Caracas FC have won 1 of their last 2 away matches.
1/2 away wins
Higher league positionUCV
UCV sit 5 places above Caracas FC in the table.
#4 vs #9
Sharper attackUCV
UCV are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 43% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked UCV at 43% — final result was Caracas FC win, UCV 0-1 Caracas FC.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (78/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

UCV2.09market 47.8% · model 43%

Caracas FC ✓3.22market 31.1% · model 29%

Draw3.24market 30.8% · model 28%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

UCV have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Caracas FC have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3UCV wins

2Draws

3Caracas FC wins

12-12Goals

Caracas FC

1–5Oct 5, 2025, 7:30 PM

UCV

1–3Apr 27, 2025, 9:30 PM

Caracas FC

UCV

1–3Oct 13, 2024, 11:30 PM

Caracas FC

2–2Apr 15, 2024, 12:30 AM

UCV

Caracas FC

0–0Sep 17, 2023, 12:20 AM

UCV

0–2Feb 26, 2023, 7:00 PM

Caracas FC

UCV

1–0Jun 18, 2022, 9:00 PM

Caracas FC

1–2May 29, 2022, 7:00 PM

UCV

Odds comparison

Match winner

UCV2.09best 2.15

Draw3.24best 3.40

Caracas FC3.22best 3.60

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.83best 2.00

Under 2.51.89best 1.99

Both teams to score

Yes1.67best 1.80

No2.05best 2.13

Double chance

UCV/Draw1.28best 1.35

UCV/Caracas FC1.28best 1.33

Draw/Caracas FC1.64best 1.73

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.33best 4.33

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.20best 1.20

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.44best 1.44

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.62best 2.62

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

UCV2.09▲ 0.03

Draw3.24▲ 0.04

Caracas FC3.22▼ 0.08

14 Aug – 14 Aug

Model vs market

UCV win-0.6pp

AI

43%

Market

43.6%

Draw-0.1pp

AI

28%

Market

28.1%

Caracas FC win+0.7pp

AI

29%

Market

28.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.