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Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena

Primera División· Regular Season - 19
Universidad de Concepcion
0–2Full-time
D. La Serena
LDLLGoals 8-1114th in league
LLDDGoals 11-2010th in league
Home4W 1D 4L(6-9)
Away2W 5D 3L(14-20)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 10'Alexander Oroz (Matías Pinto)
  2. 25'Á. Henríquez (Matías Pinto)
  3. 27'Matías Marín
  4. 31'Bryan Ogaz
  5. 39'Goal Disallowed - video review — Ian Rasso
  6. 40'Ian Rasso (Jeisson Vargas)
  7. 45+3'Matías Pinto
  8. 46'Martin Suazo (I. Gonzalez)
  9. 60'Rafael Delgado (Felipe Chamorro)
  10. 63'L. Rojas (Cristhofer Mesías)
  11. 63'Bryan Ogaz (H. Salgado)
  12. 63'Jorge Espejo (Cristhofer Mesías)
  13. 65'Felipe Gutiérrez
  14. 66'Francis Mac Allister
  15. 69'Á. Henríquez (Diego Rubio)
  16. 74'J. Fuentealba (Pablo Parra)
  17. 77'F. Mater (Moisés González)
  18. 78'Matías Pinto (Joaquín Gutiérrez)

Lineups

Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
4-1-4-13-4-2-1
1
1. J. Broun
15
15. Y. Oyanedel
6
6. Bastián Ubal
4. Osvaldo González
← 63'
21. Jorge Espejo
← 63'
16. Bryan Ogaz
10
← 74'
10. J. Fuentealba
8
← 77'
8. F. Mater
← 46'
36. Martin Suazo
20
← 63'
20. L. Rojas
18. Cecilio Waterman
9
← 69'
9. Á. Henríquez
10. Jeisson Vargas
← 10'
7. Alexander Oroz
26. Fernando Dinamarca
23. Matías Marín
14. Felipe Chamorro
21. Bruno Gutiérrez
33. Rafael Delgado
4. Francis Mac Allister
34. Ian Rasso
31. José Tapia
Cristian MunozCoachFrancisco Bozan
Bench (8)
Bench (7)
Universidad de ConcepcionD. La Serena
0.8
Goals/game
1.1
1.1
Conceded/game
2.0

AI match analysis

Universidad de Concepcion win
41.62%
Draw
28.7%
D. La Serena win
29.68%
50.3%BTTS
45.6%Over 2.5
33.3%Universidad de Concepcion clean sheet
24.7%D. La Serena clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The analysis indicates a close contest between Universidad de Concepcion and D. La Serena, with both teams struggling for form recently. Universidad de Concepcion has not been particularly strong at home, while D. La Serena's poor away record limits their effectiveness. Historical results show a split in recent head-to-head matchups, further complicating predictions. The low scoring averages for both sides suggest that a draw or low-scoring affair is likely.

  • Universidad de Concepcion has lost 3 of their last 5 matches at home
  • D. La Serena has only 1 away win this season
  • Historically, the last two face-offs ended in a win for each team, indicating a competitive matchup
  • Both teams have low scoring averages, suggesting a likely low-scoring game.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
77/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Universidad de Concepcion

  • Poor recent formUniversidad de Concepcion

    Universidad de Concepcion have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    0W 2D 3L
  • Poor recent formD. La Serena

    D. La Serena have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    0W 2D 3L
  • Strong home recordUniversidad de Concepcion

    Universidad de Concepcion have won 4 of their last 9 home matches.

    4/9 home wins
  • Weak away recordD. La Serena

    D. La Serena have won 2 of their last 10 away matches.

    2/10 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 42% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Universidad de Concepcion at 41.62% — final result was D. La Serena win, Universidad de Concepcion 0-2 D. La Serena.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (77/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Universidad de Concepcion2.24market 44.6% · model 41.62%
D. La Serena ✓3.03market 33% · model 29.68%
Draw3.24market 30.8% · model 28.7%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Universidad de Concepcion have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • D. La Serena have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

3Universidad de Concepcion wins
0Draws
1D. La Serena wins
7-6Goals
D. La Serena
1–2Jun 25, 2022, 4:30 PM
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
4–3Jun 18, 2022, 9:30 PM
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
0–2Dec 21, 2020, 9:00 PM
D. La Serena
D. La Serena
0–1Sep 15, 2020, 2:00 PM
Universidad de Concepcion

Odds comparison

Match winner

Universidad de Concepcion2.24▼best 2.37
Draw3.24▲best 3.40
D. La Serena3.03▲best 3.24

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.93▼best 2.00
Under 2.51.82▲best 1.88

Both teams to score

Yes1.72▼best 1.75
No1.99▲best 2.05

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion/Draw1.34▼best 1.40
Universidad de Concepcion/D. La Serena1.29▼best 1.33
Draw/D. La Serena1.57▲best 1.65

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.25▼best 1.25
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.75▲best 3.75
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.00▼best 3.00
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.36▲best 1.36

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Universidad de Concepcion2.24▼ 0.07
Draw3.25▼ 0.05
D. La Serena3.03▲ 0.24
11 Aug – 14 Aug

Model vs market

Universidad de Concepcion win+0.5pp
AI
41.62%
Market
41.1%
Draw+0.3pp
AI
28.7%
Market
28.4%
D. La Serena win-0.8pp
AI
29.68%
Market
30.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
14
Universidad de Concepcion
195410-1919LLLL
10
D. La Serena
20596-324WDLD

Pre-match comparison

0.8Goals scored per game1.1
1.1Goals conceded per game2

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Universidad de Concepcion

0-15'
50%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
50%
76-90+'
0%

D. La Serena

0-15'
25%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
50%
76-90+'
25%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena?+

Our AI model favors Universidad de Concepcion to win, with a 41.62% probability (Draw 28.7%, D. La Serena 29.68%).

What time does Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 14, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).