UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos
Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca · Capacity 18,000 · artificial turf · Referee: R. Guadalupe Cardenas Morales
Value found
+8.3% edgeComerciantes Unidos win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 5'R. Vilca (W. Ayoví)
- 27'David Camacho
- 36'Manuel Ganoza
- 40'Goal Disallowed - video review — F. Alcedo
- 41'F. Alcedo (E. M. Perez Azambuya)
- 46'M. de Jesús (Francesco Cavagna)
- 46'G. Paredes (Luis Garro)
- 46'J. Herrera (O. Pinto)
- 55'R. Vilca
- 57'J. Cantt
- 60'J. Cantt (L. Arce)
- 60'M. Lliuya (J. Nunez)
- 71'E. M. Perez Azambuya
- 72'R. Vilca (J. Olivares)
- 72'W. Ayoví (J. Sánchez)
- 73'E. M. Perez Azambuya (M. Sen)
- 76'Alexis Arias (J. Parodi)
Lineups
- 1.0
- Goals/game
- 1.0
- 1.7
- Conceded/game
- 1.2
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The numbers suggest a competitive match between UTC Cajamarca and Comerciantes Unidos, with both teams struggling to secure consistent results. UTC Cajamarca remains unbeaten at home this season, but they have not recorded a victory yet, which reflects their tough form. Meanwhile, Comerciantes Unidos have a slight edge in their recent head-to-head meetings, which might give them confidence despite their own turbulent form. A draw could be a likely outcome given both teams’ scoring and conceding averages.
- Comerciantes Unidos have won 2 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters against UTC Cajamarca.
- UTC Cajamarca has not won any of their last 5 matches, with 3 losses.
- Comerciantes Unidos have averaged 1 goal scored per match across their last 10 fixtures, indicating limited attacking power.
- UTC Cajamarca has conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game in their last 10 matches, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities.
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors UTC Cajamarca
- Poor recent formUTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L - Higher league positionComerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos sit 4 places above UTC Cajamarca in the table.
#9 vs #13 - Sharper attackUTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca are averaging 1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1/game - Tighter defenseComerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked UTC Cajamarca at 40% — final result was Comerciantes Unidos win, UTC Cajamarca 1-3 Comerciantes Unidos.
Predicted score was 1-1.
This was a high confidence pick (75/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- UTC Cajamarca have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Comerciantes Unidos
UTC CajamarcaUTC CajamarcaComerciantes UnidosComerciantes UnidosUTC CajamarcaUTC CajamarcaComerciantes UnidosComerciantes UnidosUTC CajamarcaUTC CajamarcaComerciantes UnidosComerciantes UnidosUTC CajamarcaUTC CajamarcaComerciantes UnidosOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -5 | 18 | DLLL |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 21 | LDDL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
UTC Cajamarca
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Who is likely to win UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?+
Our AI model favors UTC Cajamarca to win, with a 40% probability (Draw 30%, Comerciantes Unidos 30%).
Where is UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos played?+
The match is played at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca (capacity 18,000).
What time does UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 6:15 PM (your local time, based on your device).