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Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro

Serie A· Regular Season - 25
Vasco DA Gama
3–1Full-time
Cruzeiro
LWLWGoals 9-1216th in league
WLWDGoals 14-145th in league
Home6W 2D 5L(16-18)
Away5W 2D 5L(14-21)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 25'João Marcelo
  2. 27'Adson
  3. 33'Tchê Tchê
  4. 55'Lucas Freitas (Lucas Piton)
  5. 62'L. Rodriguez (Matheus Pereira)
  6. 62'J. Costa (Wesley)
  7. 70'Adson (J. Rodriguez)
  8. 78'Santiago Sosa (Cauan Barros)
  9. 79'Kenji (Felipe Morais)
  10. 79'F. Colidio (David da Fonseca)
  11. 79'Ze Lucas (Lucas Silva)
  12. 85'N. Villarreal (Wanderson)
  13. 85'Andrés Gómez (M. Hinestroza)
  14. 86'Tchê Tchê (Ramon Rique)
  15. 90+2'David da Fonseca (Ramon Rique)
  16. 90+4'Lucas Freitas
  17. 90+5'Felipe Morais (Matheus Pereira)
  18. 90'N. Villarreal (Wanderson)

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
4-1-4-14-2-3-1
1. Léo Jardim
6
6. Lucas Piton
43
43. Lucas Freitas
46
46. C. Cuesta
96
96. Paulo Henrique
← 78'
5. Santiago Sosa
← 85'
11. Andrés Gómez
← 86'
3. Tchê Tchê
23. Thiago Mendes
28
← 70'
28. Adson
9
← 79'
9. F. Colidio
97
← 62'
97. L. Rodriguez
67
← 62'
67. J. Costa
22
← 90'
22. N. Villarreal
70
← 79'
70. Kenji
5
← 79'
5. Ze Lucas
7. Matheuzinho
27
27. Gabriel Rojas
43
43. João Marcelo
34
34. Jonathan Jesus
12
12. William Furtado
81
81. Otávio Costa
Pedro EmanuelCoachJorge Artur
Bench (11)
Bench (12)
Vasco DA GamaCruzeiro
0.9
Goals/game
1.4
1.2
Conceded/game
1.4

AI match analysis

Vasco DA Gama win
41%
Draw
29%
Cruzeiro win
30%
49.7%BTTS
44.3%Over 2.5
27.3%Vasco DA Gama clean sheet
31.7%Cruzeiro clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a tightly contested match between Vasco DA Gama and Cruzeiro, as both teams have demonstrated inconsistent form. Vasco has struggled at home, recently drawing or losing their last few matches, while Cruzeiro has shown resilience in their away performances. The last five encounters suggest a tendency for draws, which aligns with the predicted outcome.

  • Cruzeiro unbeaten in last 3 away matches
  • Vasco DA Gama has not won in their last 3 home games
  • Head-to-head history shows recent games between the two teams have been close
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
76/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Vasco DA Gama

  • Higher league positionCruzeiro

    Cruzeiro sit 11 places above Vasco DA Gama in the table.

    #5 vs #16
  • Sharper attackCruzeiro

    Cruzeiro are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.4/game
  • Historical edgeCruzeiro

    Cruzeiro have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    4/8 H2H wins
  • Strong home recordVasco DA Gama

    Vasco DA Gama have won 6 of their last 13 home matches.

    6/13 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 41% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Vasco DA Gama at 41% — final result was Vasco DA Gama win, Vasco DA Gama 3-1 Cruzeiro.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (76/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Vasco DA Gama ✓2.30market 43.5% · model 41%
Cruzeiro3.05market 32.8% · model 30%
Draw3.22market 31% · model 29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Vasco DA Gama have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Cruzeiro have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Vasco DA Gama wins
2Draws
4Cruzeiro wins
7-8Goals
Vasco DA Gama
2–0Sep 27, 2025, 9:30 PM
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
1–0Apr 27, 2025, 9:30 PM
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
2–2Nov 22, 2023, 10:00 PM
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
0–1Jul 8, 2023, 7:00 PM
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
1–1Sep 19, 2021, 7:00 PM
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
2–1Jun 25, 2021, 12:30 AM
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
1–0Dec 2, 2019, 11:00 PM
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
1–0Sep 1, 2019, 10:00 PM
Vasco DA Gama

Odds comparison

Match winner

Vasco DA Gama2.30best 2.45
Draw3.22best 3.35
Cruzeiro3.05best 3.25

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.03best 2.09
Under 2.51.77best 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes1.76best 1.80
No1.96best 2.04

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama/Draw1.35best 1.41
Vasco DA Gama/Cruzeiro1.32best 1.36
Draw/Cruzeiro1.57best 1.65

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.98best 3.00
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.35best 1.36
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.63best 3.75
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.25best 1.25

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Vasco DA Gama2.30▼ 0.01
Draw3.22▲ 0.04
Cruzeiro3.05▲ 0.05
27 Aug – 27 Aug

Model vs market

Vasco DA Gama win+0.5pp
AI
41%
Market
40.5%
Draw+0.1pp
AI
29%
Market
28.9%
Cruzeiro win-0.6pp
AI
30%
Market
30.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
16
Vasco DA Gama
246711-1225LLDD
5
Cruzeiro
251168-139WWWW

Pre-match comparison

0.9Goals scored per game1.4
1.2Goals conceded per game1.4

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

F. Mendes

3Yellow cards / game
0Red cards / game
0Penalties scored / game

Based on 2 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Vasco DA Gama

0-15'
0%
16-30'
28.6%
31-45'
14.3%
46-60'
14.3%
61-75'
14.3%
76-90+'
28.6%

Cruzeiro

0-15'
10%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
10%
46-60'
40%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
40%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?+

Our AI model favors Vasco DA Gama to win, with a 41% probability (Draw 29%, Cruzeiro 30%).

What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 30, 2026, 12:20 AM (your local time, based on your device).