Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins
Northwest Stadium
Value found
+2.1% edgeMiami Dolphins win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 0 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
 Miami Dolphins | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 17-28
The historical matchup leans towards the Miami Dolphins, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders' struggle is reflected in their average of 17.6 points scored and 28.1 points conceded in the last 10 matches, suggesting a challenging defensive situation. Comparatively, the Dolphins scored an average of 20.7 points in their last 10 games, indicating a potentially stronger offensive performance.
- Miami Dolphins won 3 of last 5 head-to-head matches against Washington Commanders
- Washington Commanders have average of 17.6 points scored per game in last 10 matches
- Miami Dolphins have average of 20.7 points scored per game in last 10 matches
- Washington Commanders allowed an average of 28.1 points conceded per game in last 10 matches
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Miami Dolphins
- Tighter defenseMiami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins are conceding just 23.1 points per game over their recent matches.
23.1/game conceded - Historical edgeMiami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Miami Dolphins at 65% — final result was Washington Commanders win, Washington Commanders 20-7 Miami Dolphins.
Predicted score was 17-28.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Washington Commanders have averaged 16.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Miami Dolphins have averaged 15.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Washington Commanders are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Miami Dolphins.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Washington Commanders | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.94 | 1.81 |
| -1 | 1.95 | 1.87 |
| -0.5 | 1.87 | 1.85 |
| +0 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| +0.5 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| +1.5 | 1.92▲ | 1.85▼ |
| +3 | 1.97▲ | 1.83▼ |
| +3.5 | 1.84▲ | 1.94▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
| 34.5 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
| 35 | 1.77 | 1.93 |
| 35.5 | 1.82 | 1.91 |
| 36 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| 36.5 | 1.89▼ | 1.88▼ |
| 37 | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| 37.5 | 2.05 | 1.70 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Miami DolphinsWashington CommandersMiami DolphinsWashington CommandersWashington CommandersMiami DolphinsMiami DolphinsWashington CommandersWashington CommandersMiami DolphinsMore NFL predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins?+
Our AI model favors Miami Dolphins to win, with a 65% probability (Washington Commanders 35%).
What time does Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 14, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins?+
Washington Commanders: 0-17-0-3. Miami Dolphins: 7-0-0-0. Final: 20-7.