Washington Mystics W vs Minnesota Lynx W

NBA W
WWWLPts 836-8354th in Eastern Conference · 22-15
WWWLPts 811-8001st in Overall Standings · 31-7
Home9W 11L(1564-1625)
Away13W 7L(1702-1597)

Entertainment and Sports Arena

Value found

+2.6% edge

Minnesota Lynx W win

1.67AI fair odds
1.71Bookmaker odds
+2.6%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Total points edge

AI expects 160 total points vs the market's 165.5 line — leans under by 5.5 points.

Today
Tip-off
In Progress
Final

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Washington Mystics W
2616251784
Minnesota Lynx W
2524261994

AI match analysis

Washington Mystics W win
40%
Minnesota Lynx W win
60%

Predicted score: 72-88

Data suggests that the Minnesota Lynx are in better form, boasting a solid road win rate and a recent average of 82.4 points scored in their last 10 games. Conversely, the Washington Mystics have struggled, with their home win rate at 50% and a tendency to allow more points than they score. Historically, the Lynx have had the upper hand in their matchups, which could factor into their performance.

  • Minnesota Lynx W has a 60% win rate on the road this season.
  • Washington Mystics W has lost 8 of their last 10 games, averaging only 72.8 points scored during that span.
  • In head-to-head matchups, the Lynx have won 4 out of the last 5 games against the Mystics.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
65/100

Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Minnesota Lynx W

  • Good recent formWashington Mystics W

    Washington Mystics W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Good recent formMinnesota Lynx W

    Minnesota Lynx W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L
  • Sharper attackMinnesota Lynx W

    Minnesota Lynx W are averaging 81.1 points scored per game over their recent matches.

    81.1/game
  • Tighter defenseMinnesota Lynx W

    Minnesota Lynx W are conceding just 80 points per game over their recent matches.

    80/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Minnesota Lynx W at 60% — final result was Minnesota Lynx W win, Washington Mystics W 84-94 Minnesota Lynx W.

Predicted score was 72-88.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (65/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Minnesota Lynx W1.71market 58.5% · model 60%
Washington Mystics W2.19market 45.7% · model 40%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Washington Mystics W have averaged 83.6 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Minnesota Lynx W have averaged 81.1 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Washington Mystics W are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Minnesota Lynx W.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Washington Mystics W2.19best 3.00AI 40%
Minnesota Lynx W1.71best 1.81AI 60%

Point spread

LineWashington Mystics WMinnesota Lynx W
-0.52.021.81
+0.52.021.81
+11.971.81
+1.51.901.87
+21.831.96
+2.51.821.94
+31.732.06
+3.51.772.02

Total points

LineOverUnder
1631.752.02
1641.781.99
164.51.771.98
1651.861.91
165.51.861.89
1661.971.82
166.51.951.80
1671.991.77

Double chance

Draw/Away1.64
Home/Draw1.84

Average price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Washington Mystics W2.19 0.70
Minnesota Lynx W1.71 0.29
20 Aug21 Aug

Model vs market

Washington Mystics W win-3.9pp
AI
40%
Market
43.9%
Minnesota Lynx W win+3.9pp
AI
60%
Market
56.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Players to watch

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1Washington Mystics W wins
4Minnesota Lynx W wins
373-413Points

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
2
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
3
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
4
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
5
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
6
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
7
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
5
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
6
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
7
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
8
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
9
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
10
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
11
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
12
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
13
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
14
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
15
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
5
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
6
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
7
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
8
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018

Season comparison

77.8Points scored per game84.1
84.1Points allowed per game79.3
48%Field goal %49.5%
33.9%3-point %39.3%
73.9%Free throw %80.8%
34.2Rebounds per game33.7
20.4Assists per game22.7
15.2Turnovers per game12.4

Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.

More NBA W predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Washington Mystics W vs Minnesota Lynx W?+

Our AI model favors Minnesota Lynx W to win, with a 60% probability (Washington Mystics W 40%).

What time does Washington Mystics W vs Minnesota Lynx W start?+

Tip-off is at Aug 21, 2026, 11:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the score by quarter in Washington Mystics W vs Minnesota Lynx W?+

Washington Mystics W: 26-16-25-17. Minnesota Lynx W: 25-24-26-19. Final: 84-94.