Zhenys vs Zhetysu — Premier League

Premier League· Regular Season - 22

Zhenys

4–1Full-time

Zhetysu

DWWDDWGoals 20-169th in league

LWLLLLGoals 7-2014th in league

Home4W 5D 2L(12-9)

Away2W 4D 6L(16-25)

Astana Arena, Astana · Referee: S. Sulikanov

Value found

+30.8% edge

Zhetysu win

2.95AI fair odds

3.86Bookmaker odds

+30.8%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

5'A. Saulet
13'A. Filipović
26'S. Sikach
27'A. Filipović
36'L. Imnadze
42'S. Muzhikov
46'S. Zharynbetov (B. Madelkhan)
46'V. Shvyrev (M. Zhakipbayev)
46'S. Jovanović (S. Abzalov)
49'N. Nurbol
55'T. Mosiashvili
56'Adílio Santos (B. Madelkhan)
59'L. Imnadze (V. Naumets)
59'A. Saulet (A. Adilov)
64'S. Muzhikov (A. Adakhadziev)
65'R. Aslan (M. Zivanovic)
72'V. Naumets
76'N. Anuarbekov (S. Anuarbek)
76'A. Filipović (Y. Besengaliyev)
77'M. Zivanovic (M. Zhakipbayev)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

ZhenysZhetysu

2.0
Goals/game: 0.7; 1.6
Conceded/game: 2.0

AI match analysis

Zhenys win

36.59%

Draw

29.55%

Zhetysu win

33.86%

59.1%BTTS

61%Over 2.5

31.7%Zhenys clean sheet

13.5%Zhetysu clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Recent form suggests that Zhenys is currently in slightly better shape, with a notable scoring average, while Zhetysu has struggled significantly, especially in away matches. Historical head-to-head results also favor Zhenys, having won three of the last four encounters. This context creates an environment where Zhenys could be expected to edge out Zhetysu in this matchup.

Zhenys has scored an average of 1.9 goals in their last 10 matches
Zhetysu has only managed to score 0.7 goals per game in their last 10 matches
Zhenys has won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head encounters against Zhetysu
Zhetysu is on a five-match losing streak, struggling defensively

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

69/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Zhenys

Sharper attackZhenys
Zhenys are averaging 2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2/game
Historical edgeZhenys
Zhenys have won 2 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams.
2/4 H2H wins
Poor recent formZhetysu
Zhetysu have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L
Tighter defenseZhenys
Zhenys are conceding just 1.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 37% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Zhenys at 36.59% — final result was Zhenys win, Zhenys 4-1 Zhetysu.

Predicted score was 2-1.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (69/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Zhenys ✓1.84market 54.3% · model 36.59%

Draw3.24market 30.9% · model 29.55%

Zhetysu3.86market 25.9% · model 33.86%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Zhenys have averaged 2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Zhetysu have averaged 0.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

2Zhenys wins

2Draws

0Zhetysu wins

6-3Goals

Zhenys

3–1Jul 13, 2025, 1:00 PM

Zhetysu

0–0Apr 5, 2025, 11:00 AM

Zhenys

1–0Oct 19, 2024, 9:00 AM

Zhetysu

2–2Jun 16, 2024, 1:00 PM

Zhenys

Odds comparison

Match winner

Zhenys1.84▼best 2.10

Draw3.24▲best 3.48

Zhetysu3.86▲best 4.38

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.02▼best 2.10

Under 2.51.70▲best 1.76

Both teams to score

Yes1.83▲best 1.85

No1.83▼best 1.85

Double chance

Zhenys/Draw1.22▼best 1.30

Zhenys/Zhetysu1.27▼best 1.30

Draw/Zhetysu1.77▲best 1.92

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Zhenys1.84▼ 0.21

Draw3.24▲ 0.12

Zhetysu3.86▲ 0.53

15 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

Zhenys win-12.3pp

36.59%

Market

48.9%

Draw+1.8pp

29.55%

Market

27.8%

Zhetysu win+10.6pp

33.86%

Market

23.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.