Ajax vs Heerenveen
Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam · Capacity 55,885 · grass · Referee: A. Bos
Match events
- 7'Bernt Klaverboer
- 33'A. Ouazane (Caio Henrique)
- 45+1'Jacob Trenskow (S. Kersten)
- 51'Jacob Trenskow
- 57'Youri Regeer
- 58'L. Oyen (M. Rivera)
- 65'Kasper Dolberg (Marcos Leonardo)
- 65'O. Gloukh (Julian Brandt)
- 65'Youri Baas
- 65'Aaron Bouwman
- 73'D. Klaassen (J. Mokio)
- 74'Ringo Meerveld (L. Machine)
- 82'M. Rivera
- 86'Lucas Rosa
- 86'S. Berghuis (O. Edvardsen)
- 87'A. Ouazane (T. Arokodare)
- 87'O. Braude (Hristiyan Petrov)
Lineups
- 2.1
- Goals/game
- 1.2
- 2.2
- Conceded/game
- 1.5
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
Data suggests Ajax enters this match with a favorable head-to-head record against Heerenveen, having won 4 of their last 5 encounters. Heerenveen's recent form, with a tendency to concede goals, may also contribute to Ajax finding the net more easily. Both teams have scored an average of 1.2 goals in their last few matches, hinting at a scoreline that could edge towards a narrow victory for the home side.
- Ajax has a strong recent home match record against Heerenveen, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters.
- Heerenveen's last 5 matches saw them concede an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
- Ajax has averaged 1.2 goals scored in their last 10 matches, while Heerenveen's scoring average is also at 1.2, suggesting potential for a competitive match.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Ajax
- Historical edgeAjax
Ajax have won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
7/8 H2H wins - Good recent formAjax
Ajax have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Poor recent formHeerenveen
Heerenveen have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Tighter defenseHeerenveen
Heerenveen are conceding just 1.5 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Ajax at 65.58% — final result was a draw, Ajax 2-2 Heerenveen.
Predicted score was 2-1.
This was a high confidence pick (100/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Ajax have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Heerenveen have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Heerenveen
AjaxAjaxHeerenveenHeerenveenAjaxAjaxHeerenveenHeerenveenAjaxAjaxHeerenveenAjaxHeerenveenHeerenveenAjaxOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | DW |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | LDW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. Bos
Based on 9 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Ajax
Heerenveen
More Eredivisie predictions
Groningen
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
AZ Alkmaar
GO Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle
NEC NijmegenFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Ajax vs Heerenveen?+
Our AI model favors Ajax to win, with a 65.58% probability (Draw 19.05%, Heerenveen 15.37%).
Where is Ajax vs Heerenveen played?+
The match is played at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam (capacity 55,885).
What time does Ajax vs Heerenveen kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 2:45 PM (your local time, based on your device).