Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Segunda Liga

Segunda Liga· Regular Season - 2

Amarante

0–1Full-time

Lusitânia Lourosa

LDGoals 1-216th in league

LDLLWDGoals 11-133rd in league

Home0W 0D 1L(0-1)

Away1W 0D 0L(1-0)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

29'J. Santos
40'Arsénio Nunes
49'Ricardinho
52'Joao Ricardo
60'Nito (Arome)
63'S. Mandiang (Danny)
66'Joao Ricardo (R. Alves)
66'Alemão (Ian Custodio)
74'J. Santos (A. Ricardo)
74'Fabinho (João Silva)
82'Ricardinho (A. Montez)
82'D. Collard (Guilherme Soares)
87'B. Faria

Lineups unavailable for this match.

AmaranteLusitânia Lourosa

0.5
Goals/game: 1.1; 1.0
Conceded/game: 1.3

AI match analysis

Amarante win

36%

Draw

29%

Lusitânia Lourosa win

35%

38.6%BTTS

31%Over 2.5

35%Amarante clean sheet

40.7%Lusitânia Lourosa clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a close match is likely between Amarante and Lusitânia Lourosa. While Amarante lost their last match and has yet to play at home, Lusitânia Lourosa comes off a win and has shown better overall form this season. The numbers indicate a probable scoreline of 1-1 given Amarante's recent struggles and Lusitânia's mixed results.

Lusitânia Lourosa unbeaten in their last 5 matches against various opponents
Amarante has lost their last match and has not yet played at home this season
Lusitânia Lourosa currently sits 4th in the standings with a recent win against FC Porto B

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

61/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Amarante

Higher league positionLusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa sit 13 places above Amarante in the table.
#3 vs #16
Tighter defenseLusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa are conceding just 1.3 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.3/game conceded
Sharper attackLusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa are averaging 1.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Limited recent-match sample
Amarante has fewer than 5 recent matches on record, so recent-form signals here are based on a small sample.
AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 36% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Amarante at 36% — final result was Lusitânia Lourosa win, Amarante 0-1 Lusitânia Lourosa.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (61/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Amarante2.58market 38.8% · model 36%

Lusitânia Lourosa ✓2.61market 38.4% · model 35%

Draw3.07market 32.5% · model 29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Amarante have averaged 0.5 goals scored per game over their last 2 matches.
Lusitânia Lourosa have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Amarante2.58▲best 2.70

Draw3.07▼best 3.25

Lusitânia Lourosa2.61▼best 2.75

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.21▲best 2.35

Under 2.51.62▼best 1.70

Both teams to score

Yes1.88▲best 1.91

No1.82▼best 1.91

Double chance

Amarante/Draw1.42▼best 1.48

Amarante/Lusitânia Lourosa1.31▲best 1.35

Draw/Lusitânia Lourosa1.45▲best 1.50

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.00best 3.00

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.36best 1.36

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.75best 2.75

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.40best 1.40

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Amarante2.58▲ 0.02

Draw3.07▼ 0.03

Lusitânia Lourosa2.61▲ 0.09

13 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Amarante win+0.6pp

36%

Market

35.4%

Draw-0.7pp

29%

Market

29.7%

Lusitânia Lourosa win0pp

35%

Market

35%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.