AS Roma vs Fiorentina — Serie A

Serie A· Regular Season - 1

AS Roma

4–0Full-time

Fiorentina

LWWWLDGoals 21-131st in league

DWDWDWGoals 11-820th in league

Home1W 0D 0L(4-0)

Away0W 0D 1L(0-4)

Match events

28'Donyell Malen (Paulo Dybala)
30'N. Fagioli
39'Mario Hermoso
49'Manu Koné
52'Donyell Malen (Paulo Dybala)
54'Rodrigo Mora (Matías Soulé)
60'Donyell Malen (Paulo Dybala)
63'F. Mastantuono (M. Kean)
63'M. Brescianini (A. Jimenez)
63'N. Fagioli (Christ Inao Oulaï)
64'M. Pellegrino
68'Donyell Malen (S. Castro)
68'Mario Hermoso (K. Koulierakis)
74'A. Atta (Rolando Mandragora)
79'Paulo Dybala (N. El Aynaoui)
79'Manu Koné (Niccolò Pisilli)
81'João Mário (V. Valdepenas)
86'Niccolò Pisilli

Lineups

AS Roma

Fiorentina

3-4-2-14-3-2-1

G. GasperiniCoach

F. Grosso

AI match analysis

AS Roma win

56%

Draw

25%

Fiorentina win

19%

53.5%BTTS

49.4%Over 2.5

30.1%AS Roma clean sheet

23.5%Fiorentina clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

The data suggests AS Roma holds an advantage based on their recent head-to-head success against Fiorentina, having won four of their last five encounters. Additionally, AS Roma has demonstrated a stronger scoring average of 2.1 goals per game compared to Fiorentina's 1.1. With Fiorentina struggling in their last match against Roma where they conceded four goals, the numbers favor a narrow home win.

AS Roma unbeaten in last 5 matches against Fiorentina
AS Roma scoring 2.1 goals per game in last 10 matches
Fiorentina averaged only 1.1 goals scored in last 10 matches
Fiorentina conceded 4 goals when last meeting AS Roma away

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

93/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors AS Roma

Sharper attackAS Roma
AS Roma are averaging 2.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.1/game
Tighter defenseFiorentina
Fiorentina are conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.8/game conceded
Historical edgeAS Roma
AS Roma have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Higher league positionAS Roma
AS Roma sit 19 places above Fiorentina in the table.
#1 vs #20

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked AS Roma at 56% — final result was AS Roma win, AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (93/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

AS Roma ✓1.72market 58.2% · model 56%

Draw3.75market 26.7% · model 25%

Fiorentina4.91market 20.4% · model 19%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

AS Roma have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Fiorentina have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4AS Roma wins

2Draws

2Fiorentina wins

14-11Goals

AS Roma

4–0May 4, 2026, 6:45 PM

Fiorentina

1–2Oct 5, 2025, 1:00 PM

AS Roma

1–0May 4, 2025, 4:00 PM

Fiorentina

5–1Oct 27, 2024, 7:45 PM

AS Roma

Fiorentina

2–2Mar 10, 2024, 7:45 PM

AS Roma

1–1Dec 10, 2023, 7:45 PM

Fiorentina

2–1May 27, 2023, 4:00 PM

AS Roma

2–0Jan 15, 2023, 7:45 PM

Fiorentina

Odds comparison

Match winner

AS Roma1.72▲best 1.78

Draw3.75▼best 3.91

Fiorentina4.91▼best 5.18

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.92▲best 2.05

Under 2.51.89▼best 2.02

Both teams to score

Yes1.85▲best 1.91

No1.89▼best 1.95

Double chance

AS Roma/Draw1.18▲best 1.21

AS Roma/Fiorentina1.25▲best 1.30

Draw/Fiorentina2.13▼best 2.22

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.37▲best 2.38

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.53▼best 1.53

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.16▲best 1.17

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.88▼best 5.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

AS Roma1.72▲ 0.16

Draw3.75▼ 0.17

Fiorentina4.91▼ 0.93

21 Aug – 24 Aug

Model vs market

AS Roma win+0.7pp

AI

56%

Market

55.3%

Draw-0.3pp

AI

25%

Market

25.3%

Fiorentina win-0.4pp

AI

19%

Market

19.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.