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Ascoli vs Carrarese

Serie B· Regular Season - 2
Ascoli
1–1Full-time
Carrarese
WWLWGoals 11-104th in league
LWLLGoals 11-1315th in league
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno · Capacity 20,853 · grass · Referee: A. Zanotti

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 26'S. D'Uffizi
  2. 33'F. Abiuso
  3. 47'F. Ruggeri
  4. 51'F. Abiuso (J. Rouhi)
  5. 53'G. Corradini
  6. 58'T. Milanese (A. Oliveri)
  7. 58'S. Perciun (D. Bolsius)
  8. 63'M. Cisse
  9. 63'N. Belloni (T. Guercio)
  10. 63'M. Cisse (G. Marconi)
  11. 68'N. Schiavi
  12. 69'M. A. Chakir (G. Gori)
  13. 70'A. Silipo (G. De Pieri)
  14. 71'F. Reale (J. Martini)
  15. 79'F. Abiuso (M. Finotto)
  16. 80'G. Parlanti (L. Topalovic)
  17. 82'S. D'Uffizi (M. Brunori)
  18. 82'G. Gori (G. De Pieri)
  19. 82'G. Gori
  20. 85'S. D'Uffizi (M. Brunori)
  21. 85'A. Guiebre
Lineups unavailable for this match.
AscoliCarrarese
1.1
Goals/game
1.1
1.0
Conceded/game
1.3

AI match analysis

Ascoli win
49.53%
Draw
28.81%
Carrarese win
21.66%
45.4%BTTS
39.1%Over 2.5
35%Ascoli clean sheet
30.1%Carrarese clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

Data suggests that Ascoli has a slight edge heading into this match, having recently won their home encounter. Carrarese's notable struggles include a recent away loss, coupled with a poorer defensive performance on average compared to Ascoli's scoring abilities. Given these factors, a narrow victory for Ascoli appears to be the most likely outcome.

  • Ascoli won their last home match 3-1 against Potenza
  • Carrarese lost their last away match 0-1 to Torino
  • Ascoli's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches
  • Carrarese has conceded 1.3 goals per match on average in their last 10 matches.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
77/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Ascoli

  • Higher league positionAscoli

    Ascoli sit 11 places above Carrarese in the table.

    #4 vs #15
  • Good recent formAscoli

    Ascoli have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 1D 1L
  • Poor recent formCarrarese

    Carrarese have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    1W 1D 3L
  • Tighter defenseAscoli

    Ascoli are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • No head-to-head history

    These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Ascoli at 49.53% — final result was a draw, Ascoli 1-1 Carrarese.

Predicted score was 1-0.

This was a high confidence pick (77/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Ascoli1.95market 51.2% · model 49.53%
Draw ✓3.18market 31.4% · model 28.81%
Carrarese4.04market 24.7% · model 21.66%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Ascoli have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Carrarese have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Ascoli1.95▼best 2.02
Draw3.18▲best 3.30
Carrarese4.04▲best 4.39

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.34▼best 2.43
Under 2.51.58▲best 1.61

Both teams to score

Yes2.02▼best 2.06
No1.71▲best 1.75

Double chance

Ascoli/Draw1.22best 1.25
Ascoli/Carrarese1.32▼best 1.36
Draw/Carrarese1.80▲best 1.85

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.62best 1.62
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.75best 3.75
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.25best 1.25
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.20best 2.20

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Ascoli1.95
Draw3.18▲ 0.03
Carrarese4.04▲ 0.08
28 Aug – 28 Aug

Model vs market

Ascoli win+1.8pp
AI
49.53%
Market
47.7%
Draw-0.5pp
AI
28.81%
Market
29.3%
Carrarese win-1.3pp
AI
21.66%
Market
23%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
4
Ascoli
1100+13W
15
Carrarese
1001-10L

Pre-match comparison

1.1Goals scored per game1.1
1Goals conceded per game1.3

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

A. Zanotti

3Yellow cards / game
1Red cards / game
0Penalties scored / game

Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Ascoli

0-15'
0%
16-30'
33.3%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
66.7%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Carrarese

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
100%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Ascoli vs Carrarese?+

Our AI model favors Ascoli to win, with a 49.53% probability (Draw 28.81%, Carrarese 21.66%).

Where is Ascoli vs Carrarese played?+

The match is played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno (capacity 20,853).

What time does Ascoli vs Carrarese kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 29, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).