Athletic Club vs Novorizontino — Serie B

Serie B· Regular Season - 24

Athletic Club

1–4Full-time

Novorizontino

DLWWWLGoals 12-1310th in league

WDWLDWGoals 13-64th in league

Home5W 4D 4L(12-13)

Away5W 5D 3L(22-10)

Match events

11'Diogo Batista
18'Jota
19'Nicolas Careca (Romulo)
33'Jota (D. Vera)
45+1'Diogo Batista
45+1'Diogo Batista
46'J. Pool (Douglas Pele)
59'Robson Fernandes
61'Enzo Santos (Marcelo Henrique)
61'Max (Assis)
62'Reidiney (Juninho)
68'Felipe Negrucci (Felipe Vieira)
73'Romulo (Diego Galo)
73'Leo Naldi (Matheus Bianqui)
77'Matheus Bianqui (Diego Galo)
80'Robson Fernandes (Carlao)
80'Nicolas Careca (Maykon Jesus)
81'W. Aponza (Assis)
90+5'Luis Oyama

Lineups

Athletic Club

Novorizontino

AI match analysis

Athletic Club win

28.48%

Draw

31.25%

Novorizontino win

40.27%

43.2%BTTS

37.7%Over 2.5

27.3%Athletic Club clean sheet

40.7%Novorizontino clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests that Novorizontino has the edge in this matchup, given their stronger league position and recent form. Although Athletic Club has a decent home record, their inconsistency at home in recent matches may hinder their performance. The head-to-head history also favors Novorizontino, who have won the last two encounters.

Novorizontino has a superior recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Athletic Club's 2 wins.
Athletic Club's home form shows only 5 wins in 12 matches this season.
Novorizontino ranks higher in the league at 5th compared to Athletic Club's 9th position.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

74/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Novorizontino

Historical edgeNovorizontino
Novorizontino have won 2 of the last 2 meetings between these two teams.
2/2 H2H wins
Good recent formAthletic Club
Athletic Club have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Tighter defenseNovorizontino
Novorizontino are conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.6/game conceded
Higher league positionNovorizontino
Novorizontino sit 6 places above Athletic Club in the table.
#4 vs #10

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Novorizontino at 40.27% — final result was Novorizontino win, Athletic Club 1-4 Novorizontino.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Novorizontino ✓2.32market 43.1% · model 40.27%

Draw2.98market 33.5% · model 31.25%

Athletic Club3.23market 30.9% · model 28.48%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Athletic Club have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Novorizontino have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Athletic Club wins

0Draws

2Novorizontino wins

0-3Goals

Novorizontino

1–0Sep 19, 2025, 10:00 PM

Athletic Club

0–2May 17, 2025, 11:30 PM

Novorizontino

Odds comparison

Match winner

Athletic Club3.23▲best 3.40

Draw2.98▲best 3.08

Novorizontino2.32▼best 2.40

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.42▼best 2.55

Under 2.51.53▲best 1.58

Both teams to score

Yes2.00best 2.10

No1.72▼best 1.78

Double chance

Athletic Club/Draw1.56▲best 1.62

Athletic Club/Novorizontino1.35▼best 1.37

Draw/Novorizontino1.31▼best 1.36

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.40▲best 1.40

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.75▼best 2.75

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.62best 2.62

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.44best 1.44

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Athletic Club3.23▲ 0.51

Draw2.98

Novorizontino2.32▼ 0.33

21 Aug – 24 Aug

Model vs market

Athletic Club win-0.2pp

AI

28.48%

Market

28.7%

Draw+0.1pp

AI

31.25%

Market

31.2%

Novorizontino win+0.2pp

AI

40.27%

Market

40.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.