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Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon

Liga Nacional· Apertura - 3
Atlético Choloma
0–1Full-time
CD Marathon
LWLWGoals 17-199th in league
WLDWGoals 11-73rd in league
Home1W 0D 1L(2-1)
Away1W 1D 0L(2-1)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 13'A. Fajardo
  2. 26'C. Sevilla
  3. 43'H. Castillo
  4. 45'J. Pineda
  5. 55'Y. Mejia (L. Carcamo)
  6. 56'J. Suazo (J. Oliva)
  7. 56'O. Zamora (J. Canales)
  8. 60'J. Barrios
  9. 65'L. Ferreira (D. Martinez)
  10. 70'C. Gaido (M. Canales)
  11. 71'F. E. Martinez Hernandez
  12. 78'O. Peña (J. Bueso)
  13. 80'J. Bueso
  14. 88'Alvarado (S. Hernandez)
  15. 90+3'J. Paz
Lineups unavailable for this match.
Atlético CholomaCD Marathon
1.7
Goals/game
1.1
1.9
Conceded/game
0.7

AI match analysis

Atlético Choloma win
17.74%
Draw
24.39%
CD Marathon win
57.87%
54.3%BTTS
50.6%Over 2.5
22.3%Atlético Choloma clean sheet
30.1%CD Marathon clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The numbers suggest a favorable outcome for CD Marathon, who come into this match with a stronger form and a recent unbeaten streak against Atlético Choloma. Historically, Atlético Choloma has struggled, reflected in their three consecutive losses. Given the current standings and Atlético Choloma's shaky start, CD Marathon is likely to secure a victory.

  • CD Marathon unbeaten in last 4 matches against Atlético Choloma
  • Atlético Choloma has lost their last 3 games
  • CD Marathon has a stronger recent form with 4 points from 2 matches
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
95/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors CD Marathon

  • Tighter defenseCD Marathon

    CD Marathon are conceding just 0.7 goals per game over their recent matches.

    0.7/game conceded
  • Sharper attackAtlético Choloma

    Atlético Choloma are averaging 1.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.7/game
  • Historical edgeCD Marathon

    CD Marathon have won 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    2/8 H2H wins
  • Higher league positionCD Marathon

    CD Marathon sit 6 places above Atlético Choloma in the table.

    #3 vs #9

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked CD Marathon at 57.87% — final result was CD Marathon win, Atlético Choloma 0-1 CD Marathon.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (95/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

CD Marathon ✓1.54market 65% · model 57.87%
Draw3.86market 25.9% · model 24.39%
Atlético Choloma5.02market 19.9% · model 17.74%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Atlético Choloma have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • CD Marathon have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Atlético Choloma wins
5Draws
2CD Marathon wins
4-8Goals
CD Marathon
0–1May 1, 2026, 1:00 AM
Atlético Choloma
Atlético Choloma
0–0Mar 11, 2026, 1:30 AM
CD Marathon
Atlético Choloma
0–4Nov 27, 2025, 11:15 PM
CD Marathon
CD Marathon
1–0Sep 14, 2025, 9:00 PM
Atlético Choloma
CD Marathon
1–1Apr 20, 2013, 9:00 PM
Atlético Choloma
Atlético Choloma
0–0Feb 28, 2013, 1:00 AM
CD Marathon
CD Marathon
2–2Nov 22, 2012, 1:30 AM
Atlético Choloma
Atlético Choloma
0–0Nov 17, 2012, 1:35 AM
CD Marathon

Odds comparison

Match winner

Atlético Choloma5.02▼best 5.53
Draw3.86▼best 4.10
CD Marathon1.54▲best 1.60

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.69▼best 1.80
Under 2.52.03▲best 2.10

Both teams to score

Yes1.74▼best 1.85
No1.94▲best 2.00

Double chance

Atlético Choloma/Draw2.27best 2.40
Atlético Choloma/CD Marathon1.19▼best 1.22
Draw/CD Marathon1.12best 1.16

Average and best price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Atlético Choloma5.02▲ 0.48
Draw3.86▲ 0.32
CD Marathon1.54▼ 0.09
14 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Atlético Choloma win-0.3pp
AI
17.74%
Market
18%
Draw+1pp
AI
24.39%
Market
23.4%
CD Marathon win-0.7pp
AI
57.87%
Market
58.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
9
Atlético Choloma
4103-23WLLL
3
CD Marathon
4220+28DWDW

Pre-match comparison

1.7Goals scored per game1.1
1.9Goals conceded per game0.7

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Atlético Choloma

0-15'
25%
16-30'
25%
31-45'
50%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

CD Marathon

0-15'
16.7%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
33.3%
46-60'
33.3%
61-75'
16.7%
76-90+'
0%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon?+

Our AI model favors CD Marathon to win, with a 57.87% probability (Draw 24.39%, Atlético Choloma 17.74%).

What time does Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 9:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).