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Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino

CONMEBOL Sudamericana· Round of 16
Atletico-MG
2–2Full-time
RB Bragantino
WWDDGoals 13-81st in league
LLDWGoals 10-112nd in league
Home3W 0D 0L(5-1)
Away1W 1D 1L(7-2)

Value found

+0.9% edge

Atletico-MG win

2.38AI fair odds
2.40Bookmaker odds
+0.9%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 43'Juninho Capixaba
  2. 43'Eric Ramires
  3. 45+5'T. Cuello
  4. 45+8'Eric Ramires (Lucas Barbosa)
  5. 53'Maycon
  6. 60'Reinier (Mateo Cassierra)
  7. 60'Bernard (Alan Minda)
  8. 67'Vinicinho (H. Mosquera)
  9. 77'J. Herrera (Eduardo Sasha)
  10. 81'Eduardo Sasha (Lucas Barbosa)
  11. 84'A. Franco (M. Cisse)
  12. 86'Eric Ramires (R. Sommersall)
  13. 86'Rodriguinho (Fabinho)
  14. 88'R. Sommersall
  15. 90+3'T. Cuello
  16. 90+5'Victor Hugo (Vitao)

Lineups

Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
4-2-3-14-2-3-1
22. Éverson
6. Renan Lodi
14. Vitor Hugo
4
4. Ruan Tressoldi
2
2. Natanael
21
← 84'
21. A. Franco
8
8. Maycon
11
← 60'
11. Bernard
← 90+5'
30. Victor Hugo
28
28. T. Cuello
19
← 60'
19. Reinier
9. Isidro Pitta
17
← 67'
17. Vinicinho
21. Lucas Barbosa
32
← 77'
32. J. Herrera
20
← 86'
20. Rodriguinho
7
← 86'
7. Eric Ramires
29
29. Juninho Capixaba
16
16. Gustavo Marques
14
14. Pedro Henrique
23
23. A. Sant'Anna
1
1. Cleiton
Eduardo DominguezCoachVágner Mancini
Bench (12)
Bench (12)
Atletico-MGRB Bragantino
1.3
Goals/game
1.0
0.8
Conceded/game
1.1

AI match analysis

Atletico-MG win
42%
Draw
30%
RB Bragantino win
28%
41.5%BTTS
35%Over 2.5
40.7%Atletico-MG clean sheet
30.1%RB Bragantino clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

Data suggests Atletico-MG holds a slight advantage going into this matchup, with a perfect home record thus far. Historically, they have been successful against RB Bragantino, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings. Meanwhile, RB Bragantino's away form appears weak, contributing to the inference that Atletico-MG could secure another narrow victory.

  • Atletico-MG has won all 3 home matches this season
  • RB Bragantino has struggled away with 1 win in 3 matches
  • Atletico-MG is unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head encounters against RB Bragantino
  • Atletico-MG's recent form shows 3 wins in last 5 matches including a recent victory over RB Bragantino
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
75/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Atletico-MG

  • Strong home recordAtletico-MG

    Atletico-MG have won 3 of their last 3 home matches.

    3/3 home wins
  • Weak away recordRB Bragantino

    RB Bragantino have won 1 of their last 3 away matches.

    1/3 away wins
  • Strong recent formAtletico-MG

    Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 2 wins.

    2W 3D 0L
  • Poor recent formRB Bragantino

    RB Bragantino have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    1W 1D 3L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 42% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Atletico-MG at 42% — final result was a draw, Atletico-MG 2-2 RB Bragantino.

Predicted score was 1-0.

This was a high confidence pick (75/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Atletico-MG2.40market 41.6% · model 42%
RB Bragantino3.00market 33.4% · model 28%
Draw ✓3.18market 31.5% · model 30%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Atletico-MG have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • RB Bragantino have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Atletico-MG wins
3Draws
1RB Bragantino wins
12-10Goals
RB Bragantino
0–1Aug 12, 2026, 10:00 PM
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
2–0Nov 16, 2025, 10:00 PM
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
2–1Aug 3, 2025, 9:30 PM
RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino
1–2Oct 26, 2023, 10:00 PM
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
1–1Jun 10, 2023, 9:30 PM
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
1–1Sep 7, 2022, 8:00 PM
RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino
1–1May 11, 2022, 11:30 PM
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
4–3Dec 5, 2021, 7:00 PM
RB Bragantino

Odds comparison

Match winner

Atletico-MG2.40▲best 2.50
Draw3.18best 3.40
RB Bragantino3.00▼best 3.17

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.26▲best 2.35
Under 2.51.62▼best 1.70

Both teams to score

Yes1.91▼best 1.95
No1.81best 1.83

Double chance

Atletico-MG/Draw1.37▲best 1.42
Atletico-MG/RB Bragantino1.33▲best 1.39
Draw/RB Bragantino1.56▼best 1.60

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.33▲best 1.33
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.42▼best 1.44
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.66▲best 2.70
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.13▼best 3.25

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Atletico-MG2.40▲ 0.22
Draw3.18▼ 0.09
RB Bragantino3.00▼ 0.15
16 Aug – 19 Aug

Model vs market

Atletico-MG win+2.9pp
AI
42%
Market
39.1%
Draw+0.4pp
AI
30%
Market
29.6%
RB Bragantino win-3.4pp
AI
28%
Market
31.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1
Atletico-MG
6312+210WDLW
2
RB Bragantino
6312+710DWLW

Pre-match comparison

1.3Goals scored per game1
0.8Goals conceded per game1.1

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Atletico-MG

0-15'
0%
16-30'
16.7%
31-45'
25%
46-60'
8.3%
61-75'
50%
76-90+'
0%

RB Bragantino

0-15'
50%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
25%
76-90+'
25%

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino?+

Our AI model favors Atletico-MG to win, with a 42% probability (Draw 30%, RB Bragantino 28%).

What time does Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 19, 2026, 10:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).