Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC — Canadian Premier League

Canadian Premier League· Group Stage

Atlético Ottawa

4–0Full-time

Vancouver FC

WDWDWLGoals 19-133rd in league

LLDDDLGoals 13-164th in league

Home6W 2D 1L(19-12)

Away3W 1D 5L(12-13)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

13'Jean-Aniel Assi (N. Fleuriau Chateau)
29'Marcello Polisi (A. Ouattara)
39'Nicolás Mezquida
46'Nicolás Mezquida (L. Toomey)
51'E. Garcia
59'Jean-Aniel Assi (K. Habibullah)
63'N. Fleuriau Chateau
68'D. Pecile (B. Lee)
68'M. Amissi (A. Traore)
71'D. Aguilar (J. Coulanges)
71'N. Fleuriau Chateau (R. Abraham)
73'Goal Under Review — E. Garcia
73'E. Garcia (K. Habibullah)
78'E. Garcia
79'T. Field (K. Proctor)
83'K. Habibullah (Ballou Tabla)
84'E. Garcia (Juan Castro)
84'T. Arnaud (R. Khoury)
90+3'A. Ouattara

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Atlético OttawaVancouver FC

1.9
Goals/game: 1.3; 1.3
Conceded/game: 1.6

AI match analysis

Atlético Ottawa win

39%

Draw

22%

Vancouver FC win

39%

60.1%BTTS

58.8%Over 2.5

27.3%Atlético Ottawa clean sheet

17.4%Vancouver FC clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a tightly contested match between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC, both sitting on 27 points in the standings. Historcially, their encounters have frequently resulted in draws, and with Ottawa's stable home record and Vancouver's recent penchant for stalemates, a score draw appears likely.

Atlético Ottawa unbeaten in last 5 home matches
Vancouver FC has drawn 4 of their last 5 matches
Both teams have scored an average of 1.9 and 1.3 goals respectively in their last 10 matches

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

66/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Atlético Ottawa

Good recent formAtlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawa have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Strong home recordAtlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawa have won 6 of their last 9 home matches.
6/9 home wins
Weak away recordVancouver FC
Vancouver FC have won 3 of their last 9 away matches.
3/9 away wins
Sharper attackAtlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.9 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.9/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Atlético Ottawa at 39% — final result was Atlético Ottawa win, Atlético Ottawa 4-0 Vancouver FC.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (66/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Atlético Ottawa ✓2.37market 42.2% · model 39%

Vancouver FC2.49market 40.2% · model 39%

Draw3.57market 28% · model 22%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Atlético Ottawa have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Vancouver FC have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Atlético Ottawa wins

4Draws

0Vancouver FC wins

14-5Goals

Atlético Ottawa

0–0Oct 12, 2025, 7:00 PM

Vancouver FC

Atlético Ottawa

3–1Aug 30, 2025, 11:00 PM

Vancouver FC

2–2May 31, 2025, 2:00 AM

Atlético Ottawa

Vancouver FC

1–4Apr 13, 2025, 10:00 PM

Atlético Ottawa

0–0Oct 19, 2024, 8:00 PM

Vancouver FC

Atlético Ottawa

1–0Aug 31, 2024, 11:00 PM

Vancouver FC

0–3Jul 13, 2024, 2:00 AM

Atlético Ottawa

Vancouver FC

1–1May 12, 2024, 11:00 PM

Atlético Ottawa

Odds comparison

Match winner

Atlético Ottawa2.37▼best 2.48

Draw3.57▼best 3.99

Vancouver FC2.49▲best 2.57

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.56▼best 1.65

Under 2.52.29▲best 2.40

Both teams to score

Yes1.48▼best 1.50

No2.41▲best 2.55

Double chance

Atlético Ottawa/Draw1.44▼best 1.52

Atlético Ottawa/Vancouver FC1.23best 1.27

Draw/Vancouver FC1.48▲best 1.57

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.00▼best 4.00

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.22▲best 1.22

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.33▲best 4.33

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.20▼best 1.20

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Atlético Ottawa2.37▼ 0.33

Draw3.57▲ 0.17

Vancouver FC2.49▲ 0.24

18 Aug – 19 Aug

Model vs market

Atlético Ottawa win+0.8pp

39%

Market

38.2%

Draw-3.4pp

22%

Market

25.4%

Vancouver FC win+2.6pp

39%

Market

36.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.