Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka
Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka · Capacity 22,331 · grass
Match events
- 35'K. Fujimoto
- 43'Yuma Tsujioka
- 45'K. Maeda
- 46'Kosei Okazawa (Jackson Irvine)
- 60'Yumeki Yokoyama (Thiago Andrade)
- 60'S. Kagawa (Y. Komi)
- 62'K. Fujimoto (D. Fukazawa)
- 62'M. Shigemi (Shintaro Nago)
- 67'S. Morooka (S. Usui)
- 67'K. Maeda (Keiya Shiihashi)
- 74'Werik Popo (D. Fukazawa)
- 78'Takumi Nakamura (Pablo Sabbag)
- 84'Ayumu Ohata (Kyohei Noborizato)
- 84'K. Mikuni (Tatsuki Nara)
- 1.1
- Goals/game
- 2.5
- 1.3
- Conceded/game
- 1.2
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests that Cerezo Osaka is favored in this matchup, given their strong recent form and head-to-head advantage over Avispa Fukuoka. The recent trend shows Cerezo averaging 2.2 goals scored per game, while Avispa Fukuoka has struggled defensively, conceding 1.3 goals per game on average. With Cerezo achieving a win in their latest encounter and Avispa coming off a loss, the numbers favor an away victory.
- Cerezo Osaka has won 4 of the last 5 encounters against Avispa Fukuoka.
- Avispa Fukuoka in poor recent form with 1 loss in their last match.
- Cerezo Osaka scored an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last 10 matches.
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Cerezo Osaka
- Historical edgeCerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins - Higher league positionCerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka sit 6 places above Avispa Fukuoka in the table.
#6 vs #12 - Strong recent formCerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 4 wins.
4W 1D 0L - Sharper attackCerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka are averaging 2.5 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.5/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 36% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Cerezo Osaka at 35.53% — final result was Avispa Fukuoka win, Avispa Fukuoka 3-0 Cerezo Osaka.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Avispa Fukuoka have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Cerezo Osaka have averaged 2.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa FukuokaAvispa FukuokaCerezo OsakaAvispa FukuokaCerezo OsakaCerezo OsakaAvispa FukuokaCerezo OsakaAvispa FukuokaAvispa FukuokaCerezo OsakaCerezo OsakaAvispa FukuokaAvispa FukuokaCerezo OsakaOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 | LWL |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | WLW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Avispa Fukuoka
Cerezo Osaka
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FC TokyoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka?+
Our AI model favors Cerezo Osaka to win, with a 35.53% probability (Draw 29.55%, Avispa Fukuoka 34.92%).
Where is Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka played?+
The match is played at Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka (capacity 22,331).
What time does Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 10:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).