Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense
Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro · Capacity 46,931 · grass · Referee: A. Policarpo Bento
Match events
- 11'Joao Cruz
- 14'K. Viveros (Dantas)
- 35'Kauan Toledo
- 46'Kauan Toledo (Júnior Berimbau)
- 46'Leozinho (Kerwin Calderón Vargas)
- 46'Luiz Gustavo (J. Portilla)
- 62'Joao Cruz (Dudu Kogitzki)
- 64'C. Medina (K. Barria)
- 64'Allan (Huguinho)
- 68'Edenilson
- 72'Edenilson (Santiago Rodríguez)
- 77'Dantas
- 78'K. Viveros (Kerwin Calderón Vargas)
- 80'A. Montoro (Matheus Martins)
- 84'K. Viveros (Renan Peixoto)
- 85'Santiago Rodríguez
- 90+2'K. Barria (Danilo)
Lineups
- 1.7
- Goals/game
- 1.3
- 1.8
- Conceded/game
- 0.5
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
Data suggests a competitive match as Botafogo has a recent home record of 4 wins, while Atletico Paranaense remains unbeaten in their last five outings. Historical head-to-head encounters depict a tight competition, often resulting in narrow margins. Both teams have shown the potential to score and defend effectively, leading to a likely draw outcome.
- Atletico Paranaense is unbeaten in last 5 matches.
- Botafogo has a mixed recent form with 2 wins in last 5 games.
- Head-to-head results show a competitive history with multiple close matches.
- Botafogo has a respectable home record of 4 wins this season.
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Botafogo
- Tighter defenseAtletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense are conceding just 0.5 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.5/game conceded - Higher league positionAtletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense sit 8 places above Botafogo in the table.
#3 vs #11 - Strong recent formAtletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 4 wins.
4W 1D 0L - Historical edgeAtletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Botafogo at 39% — final result was Atletico Paranaense win, Botafogo 2-3 Atletico Paranaense.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (73/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Botafogo have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Botafogo
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico ParanaenseBotafogoBotafogoAtletico ParanaenseAtletico ParanaenseBotafogoAtletico ParanaenseBotafogoBotafogoAtletico ParanaenseBotafogoAtletico ParanaenseAtletico ParanaenseBotafogoOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 30 | LDWD |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | +12 | 44 | DWDW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. Policarpo Bento
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
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FluminenseFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?+
Our AI model favors Botafogo to win, with a 39% probability (Draw 30%, Atletico Paranaense 31%).
Where is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense played?+
The match is played at Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro (capacity 46,931).
What time does Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 24, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).