Burton Albion vs Stevenage
Value found
+0.3% edgeBurton Albion win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 59'P. Patterson (Josh Magennis)
- 72'C. Webster (Will Collar)
- 74'Jack Armer (S. Krubally)
- 75'T. Vancooten (Terry Taylor)
- 76'J. Roberts (Saxon Earley)
- 84'L. Thompson (Jordan Houghton)
- 84'Jamie Reid (Oliver Sanderson)
- 90+1'Oliver Sanderson (Josh Magennis)
- 90'S. Krubally (Z. Scutt)
- 1.0
- Goals/game
- 0.8
- 1.1
- Conceded/game
- 1.1
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
Data suggests that Burton Albion has a slight edge given their recent head-to-head results, remaining unbeaten in their last five encounters with Stevenage. Additionally, Stevenage's recent form shows struggle, particularly in away matches, where they have failed to score in their last two. The numbers favor a closely contested match, likely ending in a draw.
- Burton Albion unbeaten in last 5 home matches against Stevenage
- Stevenage has lost their last 2 away games without scoring
- Burton Albion has a better recent scoring average than Stevenage
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Burton Albion
- Historical edgeStevenage
Stevenage have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins - Higher league positionBurton Albion
Burton Albion sit 1 place above Stevenage in the table.
#15 vs #16 - Sharper attackBurton Albion
Burton Albion are averaging 1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Burton Albion at 38% — final result was a draw, Burton Albion 1-1 Stevenage.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (73/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Burton Albion have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Stevenage have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Burton Albion
StevenageStevenageBurton AlbionStevenageBurton AlbionBurton AlbionStevenageStevenageBurton AlbionBurton AlbionStevenageBurton AlbionStevenageStevenageBurton AlbionOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Burton Albion | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 16 | Stevenage | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
M. Coy
Based on 7 matches officiated (our own data).
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ReadingFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Burton Albion vs Stevenage?+
Our AI model favors Burton Albion to win, with a 38% probability (Draw 31%, Stevenage 31%).
What time does Burton Albion vs Stevenage kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 2:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).