Luton vs Notts County
Match events
- 18'J. Clark (Gideon Kodua)
- 31'L. Smyth
- 32'George Johnston
- 39'S. Robertson
- 42'N. Wells
- 45+1'C. Roberts
- 45'K. Naismith
- 47'Kasey Palmer
- 56'N. Wells
- 61'Oliver Cooper (Nick Tsaroulla)
- 62'E. Lawrence (B. Benagr)
- 63'L. Smyth (Conor Grant)
- 63'N. Wells (C. Marshall)
- 68'C. Marshall (Kasey Palmer)
- 72'S. Robertson (H. Mustapha)
- 73'Nick Tsaroulla (I. Samuels-Smith)
- 73'C. Roberts (L. Ndlovu)
- 80'Isaiah Jones (Harrison Ashby)
- 86'D. Lipsiuc (Matthew Baker)
- 86'Oliver Cooper (Q. Kouhyar)
- 90+3'Liam Walsh
- 90+3'H. Mustapha
Lineups
- 2.4
- Goals/game
- 1.2
- 1.1
- Conceded/game
- 1.0
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
Data suggests that Luton is in a strong position heading into this match, having won four of their last five games, which has contributed to a scoring average of 2.4 goals per match. Notts County's recent form includes a series of draws and a lower goal average, indicating they may struggle to keep up with Luton's scoring ability. The historical head-to-head results also favor Luton slightly, suggesting they could secure a narrow victory.
- Luton won 4 of their last 5 matches with a strong scoring average of 2.4 goals per game.
- Notts County has drawn 3 of their last 5 matches and has a lower scoring average of 1.2 goals per game.
- Historically, the recent head-to-head matches have been closely contested with Luton having the edge.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Luton
- Sharper attackLuton
Luton are averaging 2.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.4/game - Higher league positionLuton
Luton sit 12 places above Notts County in the table.
#3 vs #15 - Strong recent formLuton
Luton are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 5 wins.
5W 0D 0L - Tighter defenseNotts County
Notts County are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Luton at 59% — final result was a draw, Luton 2-2 Notts County.
Predicted score was 2-1.
This was a high confidence pick (96/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Luton have averaged 2.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Notts County have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | DW |
| 15 |  Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
B. Speedie
Based on 12 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Luton
Notts County
More League One predictions
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Blackpool
PeterboroughNotts County
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Sheffield Wednesday
BromleyFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Luton vs Notts County?+
Our AI model favors Luton to win, with a 59% probability (Draw 23%, Notts County 18%).
What time does Luton vs Notts County kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 11:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).