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CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm

Liga Nacional· Apertura - 4
CD Motagua
4–1Full-time
Lobos Upnfm
LDLDGoals 10-127th in league
LWDDGoals 11-1510th in league
Home1W 0D 1L(4-3)
Away0W 0D 2L(1-6)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 13'R. De Olivera
  2. 37'J. Serrano
  3. 45+2'R. Gomez
  4. 45+4'D. Suazo
  5. 45+4'C. Mejia
  6. 46'O. Elvir (J. Glavocic)
  7. 46'A. Guity (D. Lagos)
  8. 46'A. Reyes (A. Hernandez)
  9. 46'Luis Hurtado (Y. Hinestroza)
  10. 46'D. Suazo (E. Lopez)
  11. 46'C. Mejia (D. Carter)
  12. 60'J. Portillo (V. Marinacci)
  13. 60'J. Macias (J. Miranda)
  14. 71'L. Vega (A. Avila)
  15. 72'G. J. Rodas Andrino
  16. 73'R. De Olivera
  17. 75'R. De Olivera (J. Moya)
  18. 86'D. Carter
  19. 90+1'E. Lopez
Lineups unavailable for this match.
CD MotaguaLobos Upnfm
1.0
Goals/game
1.1
1.2
Conceded/game
1.5

AI match analysis

CD Motagua win
62.69%
Draw
21.75%
Lobos Upnfm win
15.56%
48.8%BTTS
43%Over 2.5
31.7%CD Motagua clean sheet
28.7%Lobos Upnfm clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests that CD Motagua has a slight edge going into this match, having won 2 of the last 3 encounters against Lobos Upnfm. With Lobos struggling to secure victories, their recent form may negatively impact their performance. Additionally, CD Motagua's home advantage could prove significant as they seek to turn around their season.

  • CD Motagua has a strong head-to-head history with 2 wins in the last 3 matchups against Lobos Upnfm.
  • Lobos Upnfm's recent form includes two draws and a loss, indicating struggles to secure wins.
  • Both teams have had poor starts to the season, but CD Motagua is favored due to home advantage.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
100/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors CD Motagua

  • Historical edgeCD Motagua

    CD Motagua have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    4/8 H2H wins
  • Sharper attackLobos Upnfm

    Lobos Upnfm are averaging 1.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.1/game
  • Tighter defenseCD Motagua

    CD Motagua are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1.2/game conceded
  • Higher league positionCD Motagua

    CD Motagua sit 3 places above Lobos Upnfm in the table.

    #7 vs #10

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked CD Motagua at 62.69% — final result was CD Motagua win, CD Motagua 4-1 Lobos Upnfm.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (100/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

CD Motagua ✓1.44market 69.3% · model 62.69%
Draw4.13market 24.2% · model 21.75%
Lobos Upnfm5.90market 16.9% · model 15.56%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • CD Motagua have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Lobos Upnfm have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4CD Motagua wins
2Draws
2Lobos Upnfm wins
18-9Goals
Lobos Upnfm
2–1May 1, 2026, 1:00 AM
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
2–0Mar 11, 2026, 11:15 PM
Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
0–0Nov 28, 2025, 1:30 AM
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
3–3Sep 14, 2025, 1:30 AM
Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
2–1Apr 8, 2025, 1:15 AM
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
5–0Feb 7, 2025, 1:30 AM
Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
0–2Sep 28, 2024, 11:15 PM
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
4–2Jul 27, 2024, 1:00 AM
Lobos Upnfm

Odds comparison

Match winner

CD Motagua1.44▼best 1.50
Draw4.13▲best 4.50
Lobos Upnfm5.90▲best 6.50

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.73best 1.80
Under 2.51.97▼best 2.00

Both teams to score

Yes1.84▲best 1.90
No1.83▼best 1.85

Double chance

CD Motagua/Draw1.09▼best 1.12
CD Motagua/Lobos Upnfm1.16▼best 1.18
Draw/Lobos Upnfm2.43▲best 2.70

Average and best price across 10 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

CD Motagua1.44▼ 0.04
Draw4.13▲ 0.12
Lobos Upnfm5.90▲ 0.56
21 Aug – 21 Aug

Model vs market

CD Motagua win0pp
AI
62.69%
Market
62.7%
Draw-0.1pp
AI
21.75%
Market
21.9%
Lobos Upnfm win+0.3pp
AI
15.56%
Market
15.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
7
CD Motagua
4202+26WLLW
10
Lobos Upnfm
4022-52LDDL

Pre-match comparison

1Goals scored per game1.1
1.2Goals conceded per game1.5

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

CD Motagua

0-15'
33.3%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
66.7%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Lobos Upnfm

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
50%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
50%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?+

Our AI model favors CD Motagua to win, with a 62.69% probability (Draw 21.75%, Lobos Upnfm 15.56%).

What time does CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 1:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).