Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia

Serie A· Regular Season - 23

Chapecoense-sc

3–3Full-time

Bahia

WDDWLWGoals 12-720th in league

WLWLDWGoals 12-126th in league

Home2W 5D 5L(17-27)

Away5W 4D 3L(17-17)

Match events

13'A. Véliz
19'Giovanni Augusto (Yago Felipe)
42'Kauan
46'Kevin Ramírez (Tulio)
46'Heitor (Everton)
46'Bruno Matias (F. Rossi)
48'Marcinho (Giovanni Augusto)
65'Nicolás Acevedo (Jean Lucas)
66'Jean Lucas (Erick)
67'Román Gómez (Caio Alexandre)
67'Kauê Furquim (Mateo Sanabria)
67'Luciano Juba (José Guilherme)
72'Tulio (Giovanni Augusto)
73'Jean Lucas (Erick)
78'Yago Felipe (David Antunes)
78'Fernando (Bruno Pacheco)
81'Yago Felipe (David Antunes)
81'Fernando (Bruno Pacheco)
83'Rodrigo Nestor (Michel Araújo)
85'Mateo Sanabria
89'Rodrigo Nestor (Michel Araújo)
90+6'Camilo
90+6'Erick

Lineups

Chapecoense-sc

Bahia

4-2-3-14-4-2

Lacerda RafaelCoach

Ceni Rogerio

AI match analysis

Chapecoense-sc win

25%

Draw

30%

Bahia win

45%

42.9%BTTS

36.4%Over 2.5

38.7%Chapecoense-sc clean sheet

30.1%Bahia clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests that Bahia has a strong chance of winning, as they remain unbeaten in their last five matches while Chapecoense-sc struggles, sitting at the bottom of the league with a single home victory this season. Historically, Bahia has shown dominance in their encounters with Chapecoense-sc, winning three out of the last five meetings. The numbers favor Bahia to secure the points in this matchup.

Bahia unbeaten in last 5 matches
Chapecoense-sc has only 1 home win this season
Historically, Bahia has dominated recent head-to-head matches

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

78/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Bahia

Higher league positionBahia
Bahia sit 14 places above Chapecoense-sc in the table.
#6 vs #20
Historical edgeBahia
Bahia have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins
Weak home recordChapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc have won 2 of their last 12 home matches.
2/12 home wins
Strong away recordBahia
Bahia have won 5 of their last 12 away matches.
5/12 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Bahia at 45% — final result was a draw, Chapecoense-sc 3-3 Bahia.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (78/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Bahia2.04market 48.9% · model 45%

Draw ✓3.39market 29.5% · model 30%

Chapecoense-sc3.54market 28.2% · model 25%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Chapecoense-sc have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Bahia have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Chapecoense-sc wins

4Draws

3Bahia wins

4-9Goals

Bahia

3–0Oct 24, 2021, 11:30 PM

Chapecoense-sc

0–2Jul 4, 2021, 2:00 PM

Bahia

1–1Nov 7, 2019, 12:30 AM

Chapecoense-sc

0–0Jul 28, 2019, 2:00 PM

Bahia

1–0Nov 4, 2018, 9:00 PM

Chapecoense-sc

1–1Jul 19, 2018, 10:30 PM

Bahia

0–1Nov 26, 2017, 9:00 PM

Chapecoense-sc

1–1Aug 2, 2017, 10:30 PM

Bahia

Odds comparison

Match winner

Chapecoense-sc3.54▲best 3.80

Draw3.39▲best 3.54

Bahia2.04▼best 2.10

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.89▼best 1.95

Under 2.51.90▲best 1.96

Both teams to score

Yes1.71▲best 1.75

No2.03▼best 2.07

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc/Draw1.74▼best 1.80

Chapecoense-sc/Bahia1.28▼best 1.31

Draw/Bahia1.28▼best 1.30

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.20▼best 1.20

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.17▲best 4.33

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.80▼best 2.85

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.38▲best 1.40

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Chapecoense-sc3.54▲ 0.21

Draw3.39▲ 0.03

Bahia2.04▼ 0.03

13 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Chapecoense-sc win-1.5pp

AI

25%

Market

26.5%

Draw+2.4pp

AI

30%

Market

27.6%

Bahia win-0.9pp

AI

45%

Market

45.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.