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Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo

Serie A· Regular Season - 24
Chapecoense-sc
1–0Full-time
Sao Paulo
DWLDGoals 14-1020th in league
LDDWGoals 12-1713th in league
Home2W 5D 5L(17-27)
Away2W 3D 8L(11-18)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 26'Bruno Pacheco (Giovanni Augusto)
  2. 31'Jonathan Calleri (G. Santana)
  3. 46'Danielzinho (Marcos Antonio)
  4. 58'Dylan Borrero (Mauricio Garcez)
  5. 62'Marcinho
  6. 66'Heitor (Everton)
  7. 66'Lucas Ramon (Newton)
  8. 66'Pablo Maia (Ferreira)
  9. 72'Anderson
  10. 72'Luciano
  11. 74'Yago Felipe
  12. 74'Yago Felipe (Fernando)
  13. 74'Tulio (F. Rossi)
  14. 74'Giovanni Augusto (Bruno Matias)
  15. 76'Cauly (Pedro Ferreira)
  16. 88'Camilo

Lineups

Chapecoense-sc
Sao Paulo
4-3-34-4-2
98
98. Anderson
91
91. Bruno Pacheco
3. Eduardo Doma
21
21. Kauan
5
← 66'
5. Heitor
10
← 74'
10. Giovanni Augusto
27
27. Camilo
← 74'
88. Yago Felipe
7
7. Marcinho
9
← 74'
9. Tulio
← 58'
77. Dylan Borrero
← 31'
9. Jonathan Calleri
10. Luciano
80
← 76'
80. Cauly
← 46'
94. Danielzinho
29
← 66'
29. Pablo Maia
37
37. Artur
12. Iago
35
35. Sabino
22. Domingos Duarte
19. Lucas Ramon
23
23. Rafael
Lacerda RafaelCoachDorival Júnior
Bench (12)
Bench (12)
Chapecoense-scSao Paulo
1.4
Goals/game
1.2
1.0
Conceded/game
1.7

AI match analysis

Chapecoense-sc win
24.56%
Draw
29.59%
Sao Paulo win
45.85%
52.6%BTTS
49.4%Over 2.5
33.3%Chapecoense-sc clean sheet
21.2%Sao Paulo clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests that Sao Paulo is favored to win this matchup, given their historical advantage and Chapecoense-sc's struggles this season. While both teams are in poor recent form, Sao Paulo's ability to score more frequently than Chapecoense-sc, coupled with the latter's poor home record, implies a challenging environment for the hosts.

  • Sao Paulo's recent form includes 4 matches without a win
  • Chapecoense-sc has only 1 home win this season
  • Historically, Sao Paulo has a strong head-to-head advantage against Chapecoense-sc
  • Chapecoense-sc's defense has allowed an average of 1 goal per game in the last 10 matches.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
80/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Sao Paulo

  • Higher league positionSao Paulo

    Sao Paulo sit 7 places above Chapecoense-sc in the table.

    #13 vs #20
  • Tighter defenseChapecoense-sc

    Chapecoense-sc are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1/game conceded
  • Historical edgeSao Paulo

    Sao Paulo have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    3/8 H2H wins
  • Weak home recordChapecoense-sc

    Chapecoense-sc have won 2 of their last 12 home matches.

    2/12 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Sao Paulo at 45.85% — final result was Chapecoense-sc win, Chapecoense-sc 1-0 Sao Paulo.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (80/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Sao Paulo2.06market 48.6% · model 45.85%
Draw3.21market 31.2% · model 29.59%
Chapecoense-sc ✓3.74market 26.8% · model 24.56%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Chapecoense-sc have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Sao Paulo have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Chapecoense-sc wins
3Draws
3Sao Paulo wins
7-13Goals
Chapecoense-sc
1–1Oct 3, 2021, 7:00 PM
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
1–1Jun 16, 2021, 10:00 PM
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
0–3Nov 3, 2019, 12:00 AM
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
4–0Jul 22, 2019, 11:00 PM
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
1–0Dec 2, 2018, 7:00 PM
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
2–0Aug 19, 2018, 10:00 PM
Chapecoense-sc
Sao Paulo
2–2Nov 9, 2017, 10:00 PM
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
2–0Jul 16, 2017, 7:00 PM
Sao Paulo

Odds comparison

Match winner

Chapecoense-sc3.74▲best 3.95
Draw3.21▼best 3.35
Sao Paulo2.06▲best 2.12

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.24▲best 2.34
Under 2.51.64▼best 1.73

Both teams to score

Yes1.92▲best 2.00
No1.80▼best 1.85

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc/Draw1.74▼best 1.79
Chapecoense-sc/Sao Paulo1.31▲best 1.36
Draw/Sao Paulo1.25▼best 1.28

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.49▲best 1.50
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.88▲best 4.00
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.22▼best 1.22
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.50▼best 2.50

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Chapecoense-sc3.74▼ 0.01
Draw3.21▼ 0.04
Sao Paulo2.06▲ 0.06
20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Chapecoense-sc win-0.5pp
AI
24.56%
Market
25.1%
Draw+0.4pp
AI
29.59%
Market
29.2%
Sao Paulo win+0.3pp
AI
45.85%
Market
45.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
20
Chapecoense-sc
232813-2214DLDL
13
Sao Paulo
237610027DLDL

Pre-match comparison

1.4Goals scored per game1.2
1Goals conceded per game1.7

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

R. Klein

2.5Yellow cards / game
0Red cards / game
0Penalties scored / game

Based on 2 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Chapecoense-sc

0-15'
0%
16-30'
25%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
25%
61-75'
25%
76-90+'
25%

Sao Paulo

0-15'
0%
16-30'
33.3%
31-45'
33.3%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
16.7%
76-90+'
16.7%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?+

Our AI model favors Sao Paulo to win, with a 45.85% probability (Draw 29.59%, Chapecoense-sc 24.56%).

What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).