Charlton vs Derby
The Valley, London · Capacity 27,111 · grass · Referee: B. Speedie
Match events
- 23'Sammie Szmodics (Carlton Morris)
- 54'Sammie Szmodics (A. Mowatt)
- 59'Sonny Carey (M. Alli)
- 59'M. Godden (M. Leaburn)
- 60'Sondre Klingen Langås
- 61'Lloyd Jones (K. Ahearne-Grant)
- 73'K. Ahearne-Grant (Joe Rankin-Costello)
- 80'T. Campbell
- 83'O. Fraulo (C. Blackett-Taylor)
- 84'J. Ward (Max Johnston)
- 84'C. Forsyth (Rhian Brewster)
- 84'Lewis Travis (Lars-Jørgen Salvesen)
- 85'D. McNamara (Ivan Mesík)
- 85'D. Sanderson (Lars-Jørgen Salvesen)
- 85'Nathaniel Chalobah (C. Sichenje)
- 90+8'Rhian Brewster
- 90'A. Mowatt
- 1.4
- Goals/game
- 1.5
- 1.9
- Conceded/game
- 1.5
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The numbers suggest a closely contested match, with both teams struggling for consistency recently. Charlton's home form shows a mixed bag with 1 win in their last 5, while Derby has been slightly more successful, winning 2 out of 5 albeit with a couple of losses. Historically, Derby has had the upper hand in their encounters with Charlton, which may influence this match. Expect a competitive game that could easily end in a draw given their form.
- Charlton has lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Derby has won 2 of their last 5 matches, albeit with mixed results away.
- Charlton's scoring average is slightly lower than Derby's recent form average.
- Historically, Derby has won 3 of their last 5 encounters with Charlton.
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Derby
- Higher league positionCharlton
Charlton sit 13 places above Derby in the table.
#3 vs #16 - Historical edgeDerby
Derby have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins - Good recent formCharlton
Charlton have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formDerby
Derby have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 35% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Derby at 35% — final result was Charlton win, Charlton 2-1 Derby.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Charlton have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Derby have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
B. Speedie
Based on 17 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Charlton
Derby
More Championship predictions
Derby
Swansea
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Wolves
Stoke City
Cardiff
Sheffield UtdFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Charlton vs Derby?+
Our AI model favors Derby to win, with a 35% probability (Draw 31%, Charlton 34%).
Where is Charlton vs Derby played?+
The match is played at The Valley, London (capacity 27,111).
What time does Charlton vs Derby kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 2:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).