De Graafschap vs Jong AZ
Match events
- 11'J. Oerip (B. Kovacs)
- 15'Donny Warmerdam
- 15'A. Oufkir
- 30'Donny Warmerdam
- 46'D. Eijken (T. Mero)
- 46'Matěj Šín (Rio Robbemond)
- 46'A. Natali (Mathijs Menu)
- 51'Gijs Bolk
- 52'B. Kovacs
- 59'Joran Hardeman (B. van Zijl)
- 59'N. Ahmeti (J. Wieckhoff)
- 74'Fedde De Jong
- 75'S. De Grand (K. Inge)
- 75'Rio Robbemond
- 77'Hessel de Wit (T. de Wit)
- 79'K. Symons (B. Mambo)
- 84'B. van Zijl (T. Mero)
- 85'B. Kovacs
- 86'Donny Warmerdam (Nathan Kaninda)
- 86'B. Kovacs (Y. van den Ban)
- 87'A. Oufkir (Y. van den Ban)
- 90+1'Rowan Besselink
- 90+2'A. Oufkir (Rio Robbemond)
- 90+4'J. Kania
Lineups
- 2.0
- Goals/game
- 1.1
- 1.5
- Conceded/game
- 2.0
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
Data suggests that De Graafschap has a strong historical advantage over Jong AZ, being unbeaten in their last five encounters. Jong AZ's recent form has been disappointing, with four consecutive losses, which may impact their performance away from home. Considering these patterns, the numbers favor a home victory with a predicted scoreline of 2-1.
- De Graafschap unbeaten in last 5 head-to-head matches against Jong AZ
- Jong AZ has lost their last 4 matches
- De Graafschap averages 2 goals scored per game in their last 10 matches
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors De Graafschap
- Historical edgeDe Graafschap
De Graafschap have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
6/8 H2H wins - Sharper attackDe Graafschap
De Graafschap are averaging 2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2/game - Tighter defenseDe Graafschap
De Graafschap are conceding just 1.5 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game conceded - Higher league positionDe Graafschap
De Graafschap sit 14 places above Jong AZ in the table.
#1 vs #15
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked De Graafschap at 55% — final result was Jong AZ win, De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ.
Predicted score was 2-1.
This was a high confidence pick (91/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- De Graafschap have averaged 2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Jong AZ have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
De Graafschap
Jong AZJong AZDe GraafschapDe GraafschapJong AZJong AZDe GraafschapDe GraafschapJong AZJong AZDe GraafschapJong AZDe GraafschapDe GraafschapJong AZOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De Graafschap | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 15 | Jong AZ | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 | LLWL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
L. Gerrets
Based on 11 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
De Graafschap
Jong AZ
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Who is likely to win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?+
Our AI model favors De Graafschap to win, with a 55% probability (Draw 19%, Jong AZ 26%).
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).