Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan

UFC· UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song· Women's Strawweight· Main Event
Denise Gomes
LivevsPre-Fight
Yan Xiaonan
WLWW
Dee11-3-0 (W-L-D)7 KO, 0 SUB
Ht 157cmWt 52kgReach 160cmStance Orthodox
Parana Vale Tudo
WWLW
19-5-0 (W-L-D)8 KO, 1 SUB
Ht 165cmWt 53kgReach 160cmStance Orthodox
Alpha Male

Value found

+0.5% edge

Denise Gomes win

2.22AI fair odds
2.23Bookmaker odds
+0.5%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

Match events

No events yet.

AI fight analysis

Denise Gomes win
45%
Yan Xiaonan win
55%

The numbers suggest that this matchup is relatively competitive, with Yan Xiaonan holding a slight edge due to her more extensive fight experience and successful track record against notable opponents. Denise Gomes' recent victory streak and higher knockout ratio indicate she poses a significant threat, although the overall statistics favor Yan slightly in terms of experience and fight outcomes.

  • Denise Gomes has a higher KO/TKO finish rate with 7 of her 11 wins coming by that method.
  • Yan Xiaonan has a stronger overall career record at 19-5-0, compared to Gomes' 11-3-0.
  • Both fighters have an identical reach of 160cm, which could neutralize distance strategies.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
72/100

Confidence is high because the two fighters are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Yan Xiaonan

  • More experiencedYan Xiaonan

    Yan Xiaonan has fought 24 professional fights, 10 more than their opponent tonight.

    24 pro fights
  • Superior career recordYan Xiaonan

    Yan Xiaonan carries a 19-5 professional record, a 79% win rate.

    19-5
  • High finishing rateDenise Gomes

    Denise Gomes has finished 7 of 11 career wins by knockout or submission, a 64% finish rate.

    64% finish rate

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this fight almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 55% probability, so this is a closely-matched fight and confidence remains moderate.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Denise Gomes2.23best 2.29AI 45%
Yan Xiaonan1.66best 1.73AI 55%

Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Denise Gomes2.23 0.01
Yan Xiaonan1.66
22 Aug29 Aug

Model vs market

Denise Gomes win+2.4pp
AI
45%
Market
42.6%
Yan Xiaonan win-2.4pp
AI
55%
Market
57.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

More UFC predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan?+

Our AI model favors Yan Xiaonan to win, with a 55% probability (Denise Gomes 45%).

What time does Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan start?+

This fight is scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, 12:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What are the career records of Denise Gomes and Yan Xiaonan?+

Denise Gomes is 11-3-0 (W-L-D). Yan Xiaonan is 19-5-0 (W-L-D).