Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle
Match events
- 11'Arón Rodríguez (Emerson Pata)
- 20'Brayan Rovira (Luis Sánchez)
- 31'J. Hernandez
- 34'Luis Sánchez
- 35'J. Hernandez
- 46'K. Florez (E. López)
- 47'R. Schunke
- 52'Mateo Carabajal
- 70'Emerson Pata (Juan Riquelme Angulo)
- 70'Junior Sornoza (Ronald Briones)
- 72'J. Hurtado (J. Valencia)
- 75'J. Hurtado (J. Valencia)
- 75'Emerson Pata (Juan Riquelme Angulo)
- 75'Junior Sornoza (Ronald Briones)
- 83'H. Quintana (Jhegson Méndez)
- 83'Adrián Parra (S. Aguayo)
- 87'Adrián Parra (S. Aguayo)
- 88'H. Quintana (Jhegson Méndez)
- 90+1'Arón Rodríguez (Andy Velasco)
- 90+2'C. González (Djorkaeff Reasco)
- 0.7
- Goals/game
- 1.2
- 0.6
- Conceded/game
- 0.9
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
Data suggests a competitive match, with Independiente del Valle having the advantage in recent form over Deportes Tolima. Despite Tolima's strong home performance, the away team's scoring average indicates they may find a way to penetrate the defense. The numbers favor a closely contested match, likely resulting in a 1-1 draw.
- Deportes Tolima unbeaten in last 3 home games
- Independiente del Valle has a better recent form with 4 wins in last 5 matches
- Last encounter ended in a draw with both teams scoring
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Independiente del Valle
- Historical edgeDeportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima have won 1 of the last 2 meetings between these two teams.
1/2 H2H wins - Strong recent formIndependiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 5 wins.
5W 0D 0L - Strong home recordDeportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.
2/3 home wins - Weak away recordIndependiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle have won 1 of their last 3 away matches.
1/3 away wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Independiente del Valle at 39% — final result was Independiente del Valle win, Deportes Tolima 0-1 Independiente del Valle.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (73/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Deportes Tolima have averaged 0.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Independiente del Valle have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Deportes Tolima | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 | LWWL |
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 | WLWW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Independiente del Valle
More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?+
Our AI model favors Independiente del Valle to win, with a 39% probability (Draw 31%, Deportes Tolima 30%).
What time does Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 19, 2026, 12:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).