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Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors

CONMEBOL Sudamericana· Round of 16
Deportivo Recoleta
0–4Full-time
Boca Juniors
DLLLGoals 14-161st in league
LDWDGoals 17-6
Home0W 3D 0L(2-2)

Value found

+1.9% edge

Deportivo Recoleta win

5.98AI fair odds
6.09Bookmaker odds
+1.9%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 30'Santiago Ascacibar
  2. 43'Sebastián Villa
  3. 46'B. Medina (P. Charpentier)
  4. 46'T. Aranda (Alan Velasco)
  5. 47'L. Cardozo (H. Lopez)
  6. 50'R. Dominguez
  7. 52'Miguel Merentiel (M. Delgado)
  8. 57'M. Delgado (C. Rey Domenech)
  9. 58'Miguel Merentiel (Enner Valencia)
  10. 65'Santiago Ascacibar (K. Zenon)
  11. 72'Alejandro Silva (M. Pereira)
  12. 77'Alan Velasco (K. Zenon)
  13. 78'A. Costa (F. Herrera)
  14. 81'N. Ferreira
  15. 83'R. Dominguez (F. Galeano)
  16. 83'K. Parzajuk (M. Schupp)

Lineups

Deportivo Recoleta
Boca Juniors
4-4-24-3-3
12
12. N. Ferreira
3
← 47'
3. L. Cardozo
32
32. L. Monzon
5
5. Nicolás Marotta
15
← 46'
15. B. Medina
18
18. P. Rios
7
← 83'
7. R. Dominguez
6
6. J. Espinola
← 72'
10. Alejandro Silva
33
33. A. Gonzalez
11
← 83'
11. K. Parzajuk
22. Sebastián Villa
16
← 58'
16. Miguel Merentiel
10
← 46'
10. T. Aranda
18
← 57'
18. M. Delgado
8
8. T. Belmonte
← 65'
25. Santiago Ascacibar
3
3. Lautaro Blanco
32
← 78'
32. A. Costa
4
4. J. Figal
24
24. Dylan Gorosito
1. Álvaro Montero
Jorge GonzalezCoachRodolfo Arruabarrena
Bench (12)
Bench (12)
Deportivo RecoletaBoca Juniors
1.4
Goals/game
1.7
1.6
Conceded/game
0.6

AI match analysis

Deportivo Recoleta win
16.73%
Draw
22.67%
Boca Juniors win
60.6%
51.1%BTTS
49.4%Over 2.5
19.2%Deportivo Recoleta clean sheet
36.8%Boca Juniors clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests that Boca Juniors holds a significant advantage heading into this match, having won their most recent encounter against Deportivo Recoleta. The home side remains winless at home this season, while Boca showcases a strong defensive record. With Boca's scoring averages skewed positively in their favor, the numbers favor an away victory.

  • Boca Juniors has won the last match against Deportivo Recoleta 3-1.
  • Deportivo Recoleta is yet to win at home this season, with 3 draws.
  • Boca Juniors averages 1.7 goals scored and only 0.6 goals conceded in their last 10 matches.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
92/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Boca Juniors

  • Historical edgeBoca Juniors

    Boca Juniors have won 1 of the last 1 meetings between these two teams.

    1/1 H2H wins
  • Poor recent formDeportivo Recoleta

    Deportivo Recoleta have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    1W 1D 3L
  • Tighter defenseBoca Juniors

    Boca Juniors are conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their recent matches.

    0.6/game conceded
  • Sharper attackBoca Juniors

    Boca Juniors are averaging 1.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.7/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Boca Juniors at 60.6% — final result was Boca Juniors win, Deportivo Recoleta 0-4 Boca Juniors.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (92/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Boca Juniors ✓1.52market 65.8% · model 60.6%
Draw4.12market 24.3% · model 22.67%
Deportivo Recoleta6.09market 16.4% · model 16.73%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Deportivo Recoleta have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Boca Juniors have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Deportivo Recoleta wins
0Draws
1Boca Juniors wins
1-3Goals
Boca Juniors
3–1Aug 11, 2026, 10:00 PM
Deportivo Recoleta

Odds comparison

Match winner

Deportivo Recoleta6.09▲best 6.55
Draw4.12▼best 4.45
Boca Juniors1.52▼best 1.58

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.83▼best 1.94
Under 2.51.96▲best 2.04

Both teams to score

Yes1.91▼best 2.00
No1.81▲best 1.83

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta/Draw2.48▲best 2.60
Deportivo Recoleta/Boca Juniors1.21best 1.26
Draw/Boca Juniors1.12▼best 1.16

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.13best 2.15
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.65best 1.67
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes5.75best 6.00
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.12best 1.12

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Deportivo Recoleta6.09▲ 0.44
Draw4.12▼ 0.02
Boca Juniors1.52
18 Aug – 18 Aug

Model vs market

Deportivo Recoleta win+1.3pp
AI
16.73%
Market
15.4%
Draw-0.1pp
AI
22.67%
Market
22.8%
Boca Juniors win-1.2pp
AI
60.6%
Market
61.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1
Deportivo Recoleta
6150+18DDDD

Pre-match comparison

1.4Goals scored per game1.7
1.6Goals conceded per game0.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Deportivo Recoleta

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
50%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
50%
76-90+'
0%

Boca Juniors

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
50%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
50%

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions

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Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM
River Plate
Santa Fe
11.2572.00%
X5.4219.00%
213.019.00%
Prediction:River Plate

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors?+

Our AI model favors Boca Juniors to win, with a 60.6% probability (Draw 22.67%, Deportivo Recoleta 16.73%).

What time does Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 18, 2026, 10:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).