Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica

CONMEBOL Libertadores· Round of 16
LWWLGoals 12-82nd in league
WLLWGoals 11-101st in league
Home2W 1D 0L(4-2)
Away3W 0D 0L(5-2)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 4'J. Burgos
  2. 9'F. Zampedri
  3. 61'Perez Fabricio (Joaquín Correa)
  4. 65'Eugenio Mena (D. Corral)
  5. 67'Tiago Palacios (Baltasar Rodriguez)
  6. 67'Alexis Castro (Gabriel Neves)
  7. 74'Baltasar Rodriguez
  8. 78'Cristian Cuevas
  9. 80'F. Zampedri (J. Giani)
  10. 85'J. Burgos (B. Aguirre)
  11. 86'Bernardo Cerezo (A. Farias)
  12. 86'Jhojan Valencia (G. Medel)
  13. 90+2'Tomás Palacios

Lineups

Estudiantes L.P.U. Catolica
1.2
Goals/game
1.1
0.8
Conceded/game
1.0

AI match analysis

Estudiantes L.P. win
56.74%
Draw
27.09%
U. Catolica win
16.17%
40.9%BTTS
33.7%Over 2.5
38.7%Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet
33.3%U. Catolica clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

The statistics suggest that Estudiantes L.P. has a strong home advantage with an unbeaten home record this season. U. Catolica, however, comes in with impressive away form, having won all their matches so far. The numbers indicate a low-scoring match, as Estudiantes averages just 0.9 goals scored in their last ten games, while U. Catolica has maintained solid defensive stats.

  • U. Catolica unbeaten in all 3 away matches this season
  • Estudiantes L.P. has a solid home record of 2W 1D 0L
  • U. Catolica's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 5 matches
  • Estudiantes L.P. averages only 0.9 goals scored over their last 10 matches
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
85/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Estudiantes L.P.

  • Good recent formEstudiantes L.P.

    Estudiantes L.P. have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Good recent formU. Catolica

    U. Catolica have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Strong home recordEstudiantes L.P.

    Estudiantes L.P. have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.

    2/3 home wins
  • Strong away recordU. Catolica

    U. Catolica have won 3 of their last 3 away matches.

    3/3 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Estudiantes L.P. at 56.74% — final result was a draw, Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 U. Catolica.

Predicted score was 1-0.

This was a high confidence pick (85/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Estudiantes L.P.1.71market 58.5% · model 56.74%
Draw3.37market 29.7% · model 27.09%
U. Catolica5.52market 18.1% · model 16.17%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Estudiantes L.P. have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • U. Catolica have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

1Estudiantes L.P. wins
0Draws
0U. Catolica wins
3-0Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Estudiantes L.P.1.71best 1.80
Draw3.37best 3.50
U. Catolica5.52best 6.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.50best 2.61
Under 2.51.52best 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes2.29best 2.42
No1.56best 1.67

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P./Draw1.14best 1.17
Estudiantes L.P./U. Catolica1.29best 1.32
Draw/U. Catolica2.10best 2.25

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.84best 1.91
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes1.88best 1.95
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.88best 4.00
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.22best 1.22

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Estudiantes L.P.1.71 0.09
Draw3.37 0.42
U. Catolica5.52 0.08
10 Aug12 Aug

Model vs market

Estudiantes L.P. win+1.7pp
AI
56.74%
Market
55%
Draw-0.8pp
AI
27.09%
Market
27.9%
U. Catolica win-0.9pp
AI
16.17%
Market
17.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
2
Estudiantes L.P.
6231+19LDDW
1
U. Catolica
6411+413WDWW

Pre-match comparison

1.2Goals scored per game1.1
0.8Goals conceded per game1

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Estudiantes L.P.

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
25%
46-60'
25%
61-75'
12.5%
76-90+'
37.5%

U. Catolica

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
20%
61-75'
40%
76-90+'
40%

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica?+

Our AI model favors Estudiantes L.P. to win, with a 56.74% probability (Draw 27.09%, U. Catolica 16.17%).

What time does Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).