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U. Catolica vs Estudiantes L.P.

CONMEBOL Libertadores· Round of 16
U. Catolica
0–3Full-time
Estudiantes L.P.
WDLWGoals 12-81st in league
LDWLGoals 10-92nd in league
Home1W 1D 1L(3-2)
Away0W 2D 1L(2-3)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 36'Tiago Palacios (Joaquín Correa)
  2. 44'Joaquín Correa (Baltasar Rodriguez)
  3. 45+4'G. Benedetti
  4. 46'D. Corral (C. Montes)
  5. 48'Jhojan Valencia
  6. 50'A. Farias
  7. 53'Guido Carrillo (E. Mancuso)
  8. 59'A. Farias (S. Arancibia)
  9. 60'Alexis Castro (Gabriel Neves)
  10. 60'J. A. Martinez (Matías Palavecino)
  11. 60'Baltasar Rodriguez (E. Meza)
  12. 60'J. Burgos (Edwuin Cetre)
  13. 65'Tomás Palacios
  14. 71'M. Gomez (I. Perez)
  15. 74'A. Farias
  16. 76'G. Benedetti
  17. 80'Jhojan Valencia (A. Canales)
  18. 83'E. Mancuso (Valente Pierani)
  19. 83'Guido Carrillo (Edwuin Cetre)
  20. 86'L. Piovi
  21. 89'L. Piovi
Lineups unavailable for this match.
U. CatolicaEstudiantes L.P.
1.2
Goals/game
1.0
0.8
Conceded/game
0.9

AI match analysis

U. Catolica win
29%
Draw
32%
Estudiantes L.P. win
39%
38.6%BTTS
31%Over 2.5
40.7%U. Catolica clean sheet
35%Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a competitive match between U. Catolica and Estudiantes L.P., with both teams recently displaying mixed forms. U. Catolica is unbeaten in their last five matches, while Estudiantes L.P. struggles with away performances, not securing a win in their last three away games. Based on their previous head-to-head match, a close scoreline appears probable.

  • U. Catolica unbeaten in last 5 matches
  • Estudiantes L.P. has not won in last 3 away matches
  • Last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
72/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Estudiantes L.P.

  • Good recent formU. Catolica

    U. Catolica have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 1D 1L
  • Weak home recordU. Catolica

    U. Catolica have won 1 of their last 3 home matches.

    1/3 home wins
  • Weak away recordEstudiantes L.P.

    Estudiantes L.P. have won 0 of their last 3 away matches.

    0/3 away wins
  • Sharper attackU. Catolica

    U. Catolica are averaging 1.2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.2/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Estudiantes L.P. at 39% — final result was Estudiantes L.P. win, U. Catolica 0-3 Estudiantes L.P..

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (72/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Estudiantes L.P. ✓2.38market 42% · model 39%
Draw2.92market 34.2% · model 32%
U. Catolica3.32market 30.1% · model 29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • U. Catolica have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Estudiantes L.P. have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0U. Catolica wins
1Draws
0Estudiantes L.P. wins
1-1Goals
Estudiantes L.P.
1–1Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM
U. Catolica

Odds comparison

Match winner

U. Catolica3.32▲best 3.55
Draw2.92▼best 3.10
Estudiantes L.P.2.38▼best 2.90

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.67▲best 2.75
Under 2.51.46▼best 1.50

Both teams to score

Yes2.12▲best 2.20
No1.65▼best 1.70

Double chance

U. Catolica/Draw1.57▲best 1.60
U. Catolica/Estudiantes L.P.1.38▲best 1.40
Draw/Estudiantes L.P.1.30▼best 1.33

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.94▲best 3.00
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.56▲best 1.57
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.27▼best 2.30
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.36▼best 1.36

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

U. Catolica3.32▲ 0.78
Draw2.92▼ 0.11
Estudiantes L.P.2.38▼ 0.41
16 Aug – 19 Aug

Model vs market

U. Catolica win+0.7pp
AI
29%
Market
28.3%
Draw-0.2pp
AI
32%
Market
32.2%
Estudiantes L.P. win-0.5pp
AI
39%
Market
39.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1
U. Catolica
6411+413WDWW
2
Estudiantes L.P.
6231+19LDDW

Pre-match comparison

1.2Goals scored per game1
0.8Goals conceded per game0.9

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

W. Roldan

5Yellow cards / game
0Red cards / game
0Penalties scored / game

Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

U. Catolica

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
16.7%
61-75'
33.3%
76-90+'
50%

Estudiantes L.P.

0-15'
16.7%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
16.7%
46-60'
16.7%
61-75'
16.7%
76-90+'
33.3%

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win U. Catolica vs Estudiantes L.P.?+

Our AI model favors Estudiantes L.P. to win, with a 39% probability (Draw 32%, U. Catolica 29%).

What time does U. Catolica vs Estudiantes L.P. kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 19, 2026, 12:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).