Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven — Eredivisie

Eredivisie· Regular Season - 2

Excelsior

1–2Full-time

PSV Eindhoven

LWWWWLGoals 25-810th in league

LDLLDWGoals 23-192nd in league

Home0W 0D 1L(1-2)

Away1W 0D 0L(2-1)

Match events

5'R. van Bommel
46'Aymen Sliti (Nolan Martens)
46'Ilano Silva Timas (O. Turay)
54'C. Widell (Irakli Yegoian)
56'Ricardo Pepi (S. Dest)
63'R. van Bommel (Amir Bouhamdi)
63'Paul Wanner (Kodai Sano)
69'D. Garden (N. Groen)
72'Ivan Perišić (Dennis Man)
74'Lennard Hartjes (Alireza Jahanbakhsh)
80'Simon Janssen (M. Dominguez)
81'Daniel van Vianen (Y. Finey)
83'Ricardo Pepi (Sven Mijnans)
88'Jan Plug
89'S. Dest (Kiliann Sildillia)

Lineups

Excelsior

PSV Eindhoven

4-3-34-2-3-1

R. den UilCoach

Peter Bosz

AI match analysis

Excelsior win

15%

Draw

20%

PSV Eindhoven win

65%

70%BTTS

72.3%Over 2.5

21.2%Excelsior clean sheet

11.1%PSV Eindhoven clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-3

Data suggests that PSV Eindhoven is favored to continue their dominance over Excelsior, given their strong historical performance in head-to-head matchups. Excelsior's recent form shows promise, but PSV's overall quality and scoring rate may overcome that, leading to a predicted score of 3-1 in favor of the away team.

Excelsior has a solid recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
PSV Eindhoven has struggled recently, losing 3 of their last 4 games.
Historically, PSV Eindhoven has dominated this matchup, winning 5 of the last 5 meetings.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

100/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors PSV Eindhoven

Historical edgePSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven have won 8 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
8/8 H2H wins
Good recent formExcelsior
Excelsior have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Poor recent formPSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L
Higher league positionPSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven sit 8 places above Excelsior in the table.
#2 vs #10

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked PSV Eindhoven at 65% — final result was PSV Eindhoven win, Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven.

Predicted score was 1-3.

This was a high confidence pick (100/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

PSV Eindhoven ✓1.47market 68% · model 65%

Draw4.70market 21.3% · model 20%

Excelsior5.85market 17.1% · model 15%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Excelsior have averaged 2.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
PSV Eindhoven have averaged 2.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

0Excelsior wins

0Draws

8PSV Eindhoven wins

3-26Goals

Excelsior

0–2Apr 2, 2024, 6:00 PM

PSV Eindhoven

3–1Jan 13, 2024, 8:00 PM

Excelsior

PSV Eindhoven

4–0Apr 8, 2023, 6:00 PM

Excelsior

1–6Aug 28, 2022, 12:30 PM

PSV Eindhoven

Excelsior

0–2Mar 2, 2019, 6:45 PM

PSV Eindhoven

6–0Dec 7, 2018, 7:45 PM

Excelsior

PSV Eindhoven

1–0Feb 7, 2018, 5:30 PM

Excelsior

1–2Nov 26, 2017, 1:30 PM

PSV Eindhoven

Odds comparison

Match winner

Excelsior5.85▲best 6.47

Draw4.70▲best 5.00

PSV Eindhoven1.47▼best 1.57

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.33▼best 1.38

Under 2.53.15▲best 3.40

Both teams to score

Yes1.44▲best 1.50

No2.63▼best 2.88

Double chance

Excelsior/Draw2.60▲best 2.67

Excelsior/PSV Eindhoven1.17▼best 1.20

Draw/PSV Eindhoven1.13▼best 1.18

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.32▲best 1.36

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.15▼best 3.30

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.06▼best 1.06

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes10.00▲best 10.00

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Excelsior5.85▲ 1.39

Draw4.70▲ 0.53

PSV Eindhoven1.47▼ 0.15

12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

Excelsior win-1.1pp

AI

15%

Market

16.1%

Draw0pp

AI

20%

Market

20%

PSV Eindhoven win+1.1pp

AI

65%

Market

63.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.