Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy
City Light Stadium, Okayama
Match events
- 42'R. Inoue
- 56'J. Yamamoto (Y. Matsuhashi)
- 56'S. Mizoguchi
- 60'T. Yamane (N. Browne)
- 61'Lucao (Leo Gaucho)
- 64'H. Omori
- 65'H. Hirao (G. Yamada)
- 65'Yuya Fukuda (I. Kumatoriya)
- 67'Na Sang-Ho (Kazunari Ichimi)
- 77'K. Shirai (S. Mori)
- 77'Ataru Esaka (Kamiya Yuta)
- 86'Kazuya Miyahara (K. Suzuki)
- 86'Itsuki Someno (R. Shirai)
- 1.7
- Goals/game
- 1.1
- 0.8
- Conceded/game
- 1.9
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
The data suggests a competitive matchup, with Fagiano Okayama benefiting from a solid home win. Tokyo Verdy's away form and recent performances indicate vulnerabilities, as they have been conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game. Historically, Tokyo Verdy has won their last two encounters against Fagiano Okayama, but their current form might not support a repeat performance.
- Fagiano Okayama has won their only home game this season
- Tokyo Verdy has struggled away, with a poor scoring average of 0.8 goals per game
- Recent head-to-head history shows Tokyo Verdy has won both encounters against Fagiano Okayama
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Fagiano Okayama
- Historical edgeTokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy have won 2 of the last 2 meetings between these two teams.
2/2 H2H wins - Higher league positionFagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama sit 8 places above Tokyo Verdy in the table.
#9 vs #17 - Good recent formFagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Sharper attackFagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama are averaging 1.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.7/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 44% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Fagiano Okayama at 43.6% — final result was a draw, Fagiano Okayama 0-0 Tokyo Verdy.
Predicted score was 2-1.
This was a high confidence pick (76/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Fagiano Okayama have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Tokyo Verdy have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |  Fagiano Okayama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 |  Tokyo Verdy | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | DLD |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Fagiano Okayama
Tokyo Verdy
More J1 League predictions
Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Mito Hollyhock
Machida Zelvia
Shimizu S-pulse
Kashiwa Reysol
V-varen Nagasaki
FC TokyoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy?+
Our AI model favors Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 43.6% probability (Draw 31.84%, Tokyo Verdy 24.57%).
Where is Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy played?+
The match is played at City Light Stadium, Okayama.
What time does Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).