Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki
City Light Stadium, Okayama
Value found
+39.9% edgeV-varen Nagasaki win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 23'Eduardo (I. Arai)
- 46'Ryogo Yamasaki (Thiago Santana)
- 54'Lucao (E. Miyamoto)
- 64'H. Yamaguchi (Tenmu Matsumoto)
- 65'M. Sekiguchi (Yoneda Shunya)
- 65'Lucao (Leo Gaucho)
- 74'Yoneda Shunya
- 75'Na Sang-Ho (Jun Nishikawa)
- 76'Ataru Esaka (Kazunari Ichimi)
- 81'Yuto Iwasaki
- 90'E. Miyamoto (Ibuki Fujita)
- 90'Kosuke Shirai (I. Shu)
Lineups
- 1.6
- Goals/game
- 1.6
- 0.8
- Conceded/game
- 1.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests that Fagiano Okayama's opening match loss contributes to an unfavorable position, while V-varen Nagasaki's recent win positions them positively. Historically, Nagasaki has outperformed Okayama in their last two encounters, which adds to their advantage. The numbers favor a close match, but Nagasaki appears more likely to capitalize on their form.
- Fagiano Okayama lost their opening match, showing negative early form.
- V-varen Nagasaki won their first match and has momentum.
- Historically, V-varen Nagasaki has a slight edge in recent head-to-head meetings.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Fagiano Okayama
- Historical edgeV-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki have won 2 of the last 2 meetings between these two teams.
2/2 H2H wins - Higher league positionFagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama sit 7 places above V-varen Nagasaki in the table.
#9 vs #16 - Good recent formV-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Sharper attackFagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Fagiano Okayama at 44% — final result was Fagiano Okayama win, Fagiano Okayama 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki.
Predicted score was 1-2.
This was a high confidence pick (79/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Fagiano Okayama have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- V-varen Nagasaki have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | DWL | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | LLW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
More J1 League predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki?+
Our AI model favors Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 44% probability (Draw 29%, V-varen Nagasaki 27%).
Where is Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki played?+
The match is played at City Light Stadium, Okayama.
What time does Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 9:55 AM (your local time, based on your device).












