Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki

J1 League· Regular Season - 2
WLDWGoals 16-89th in league
WWLWGoals 16-1616th in league
Home1W 1D 0L(1-0)
Away0W 0D 2L(2-5)

City Light Stadium, Okayama

Value found

+39.9% edge

V-varen Nagasaki win

3.7AI fair odds
5.18Bookmaker odds
+39.9%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 23'Eduardo (I. Arai)
  2. 46'Ryogo Yamasaki (Thiago Santana)
  3. 54'Lucao (E. Miyamoto)
  4. 64'H. Yamaguchi (Tenmu Matsumoto)
  5. 65'M. Sekiguchi (Yoneda Shunya)
  6. 65'Lucao (Leo Gaucho)
  7. 74'Yoneda Shunya
  8. 75'Na Sang-Ho (Jun Nishikawa)
  9. 76'Ataru Esaka (Kazunari Ichimi)
  10. 81'Yuto Iwasaki
  11. 90'E. Miyamoto (Ibuki Fujita)
  12. 90'Kosuke Shirai (I. Shu)

Lineups

Fagiano OkayamaV-varen Nagasaki
1.6
Goals/game
1.6
0.8
Conceded/game
1.6

AI match analysis

Fagiano Okayama win
44%
Draw
29%
V-varen Nagasaki win
27%
55.8%BTTS
53.1%Over 2.5
30.1%Fagiano Okayama clean sheet
20.2%V-varen Nagasaki clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests that Fagiano Okayama's opening match loss contributes to an unfavorable position, while V-varen Nagasaki's recent win positions them positively. Historically, Nagasaki has outperformed Okayama in their last two encounters, which adds to their advantage. The numbers favor a close match, but Nagasaki appears more likely to capitalize on their form.

  • Fagiano Okayama lost their opening match, showing negative early form.
  • V-varen Nagasaki won their first match and has momentum.
  • Historically, V-varen Nagasaki has a slight edge in recent head-to-head meetings.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
79/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Fagiano Okayama

  • Historical edgeV-varen Nagasaki

    V-varen Nagasaki have won 2 of the last 2 meetings between these two teams.

    2/2 H2H wins
  • Higher league positionFagiano Okayama

    Fagiano Okayama sit 7 places above V-varen Nagasaki in the table.

    #9 vs #16
  • Good recent formV-varen Nagasaki

    V-varen Nagasaki have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L
  • Sharper attackFagiano Okayama

    Fagiano Okayama are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.6/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Fagiano Okayama at 44% — final result was Fagiano Okayama win, Fagiano Okayama 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (79/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Fagiano Okayama1.67market 60% · model 44%
Draw3.70market 27% · model 29%
V-varen Nagasaki5.18market 19.3% · model 27%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Fagiano Okayama have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • V-varen Nagasaki have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Fagiano Okayama wins
0Draws
2V-varen Nagasaki wins
1-3Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Fagiano Okayama1.67best 2.20
Draw3.70best 4.04
V-varen Nagasaki5.18best 6.09

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.03best 2.15
Under 2.51.75best 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes1.94best 2.00
No1.77best 1.92

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama/Draw1.16best 1.33
Fagiano Okayama/V-varen Nagasaki1.25best 1.29
Draw/V-varen Nagasaki2.18best 2.38

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.53best 1.53
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.22best 1.22
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.00best 4.00
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.38best 2.38

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Fagiano Okayama1.67 0.50
Draw3.70 0.52
V-varen Nagasaki5.18 1.90
12 Aug15 Aug

Model vs market

Fagiano Okayama win-12.4pp
AI
44%
Market
56.4%
Draw+3.6pp
AI
29%
Market
25.4%
V-varen Nagasaki win+8.8pp
AI
27%
Market
18.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
9
Fagiano Okayama
311104DWL
16
V-varen Nagasaki
3102-23LLW

Pre-match comparison

1.6Goals scored per game1.6
0.8Goals conceded per game1.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Fagiano Okayama

0-15'
25%
16-30'
25%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
50%
76-90+'
0%

V-varen Nagasaki

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
66.7%
61-75'
33.3%
76-90+'
0%

More J1 League predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki?+

Our AI model favors Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 44% probability (Draw 29%, V-varen Nagasaki 27%).

Where is Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki played?+

The match is played at City Light Stadium, Okayama.

What time does Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 9:55 AM (your local time, based on your device).