Fenerbahçe vs Lyon
Match events
- 37'Abner Vinícius
- 40'Loïs Openda (Corentin Tolisso)
- 47'M. Greenwood (Kerem Aktürkoğlu)
- 73'Kerem Aktürkoğlu (D. Nene)
- 73'Talisca (Marco Asensio)
- 75'R. Kluivert (Clinton Mata)
- 75'Ernest Nuamah (K. Boudache)
- 81'N'Golo Kanté
- 82'V. Muriqi (R. Lukaku)
- 84'Milan Škriniar
- 86'Tanner Tessmann (M. Bidstrup)
- 86'T. Morton (M. Bidstrup)
- 90+1'Malick Fofana (Mohamed Ouédraogo)
Lineups
- 2.3
- Goals/game
- 1.8
- 1.4
- Conceded/game
- 1.3
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
The data suggests a competitive matchup, with Fenerbahçe having the edge due to their strong home form, winning 3 out of their last 5 games there. Lyon's recent defensive struggles, allowing 10 goals in their last 5 outings, may favor Fenerbahçe's attacking strength. Both teams showed fluctuating performances recently, but Fenerbahçe's scoring average of 2.2 goals per game in their last 10 encounters could lead to a predicted score of 2-1.
- Fenerbahçe has won 3 of their last 5 home games
- Lyon has conceded 10 goals in their last 5 matches
- Recent head-to-head ended in a goalless draw
- Fenerbahçe averages 2.2 goals scored in their last 10 matches
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Fenerbahçe
- Sharper attackFenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.3 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.3/game - Good recent formFenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Poor recent formLyon
Lyon have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Tighter defenseFenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe are conceding just 1.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Fenerbahçe at 47.61% — final result was a draw, Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon.
Predicted score was 2-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (70/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Fenerbahçe have averaged 2.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Lyon have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
S. Jablonski
Based on 10 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Fenerbahçe
Lyon
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?+
Our AI model favors Fenerbahçe to win, with a 47.61% probability (Draw 27.01%, Lyon 25.38%).
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Lyon kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 18, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).