Lyon vs Fenerbahçe

UEFA Champions League· Play-offs
Lyon
12Full-time
Fenerbahçe
WDWDGoals 19-13
WLDWGoals 22-14
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 24'Vedat Muriqi
  2. 28'Nathan Aké
  3. 28'Archie Brown (Mason Greenwood)
  4. 32'Milan Škriniar
  5. 51'L. Openda
  6. 61'M. Fofana (A. Maitland-Niles)
  7. 62'A. Maitland-Niles (Z. Athekame)
  8. 62'E. Nuamah (K. Boudache)
  9. 64'L. Openda (Abner)
  10. 64'Goal Disallowed - offside — L. Openda
  11. 66'Anderson Talisca (İsmail Yüksek)
  12. 72'K. Boudache
  13. 72'Goal Disallowed - offside — K. Boudache
  14. 76'T. Tessmann (Pavel Šulc)
  15. 78'Oğuz Aydın (Nene Dorgeles)
  16. 80'Mason Greenwood (İrfan Can Kahveci)
  17. 81'Vedat Muriqi (Romelu Lukaku)
  18. 86'Tyler Morton (M. Bidstrup)
  19. 87'Abner (N. Tagliafico)
  20. 90+5'Mattéo Guendouzi
  21. 90+6'Nene Dorgeles

Lineups

LyonFenerbahçe
1.9
Goals/game
2.2
1.3
Conceded/game
1.4

AI match analysis

Lyon win
49%
Draw
26%
Fenerbahçe win
25%
66.8%BTTS
66%Over 2.5
17.4%Lyon clean sheet
19.2%Fenerbahçe clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a balanced matchup, with Lyon having performed well at home historically against Fenerbahçe, yet struggling in recent league play. Fenerbahçe's consistent scoring ability, averaging 2.2 goals in their last 10 matches, indicates they may pose a significant threat. Given their head-to-head results, a draw seems a plausible outcome.

  • Lyon unbeaten at home against Fenerbahçe in recent meetings
  • Fenerbahçe averages 2.2 goals in their last 10 matches
  • Lyon's last 5 matches include 2 wins but 2 losses at home
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
72/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Lyon

  • Sharper attackFenerbahçe

    Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2.2/game
  • Tighter defenseLyon

    Lyon are conceding just 1.3 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1.3/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Lyon at 49% — final result was Fenerbahçe win, Lyon 1-2 Fenerbahçe.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (72/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Lyon1.90market 52.6% · model 49%
Draw3.58market 27.9% · model 26%
Fenerbahçe3.90market 25.6% · model 25%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Lyon have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Fenerbahçe have averaged 2.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Lyon wins
2Draws
0Fenerbahçe wins
1-1Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Lyon1.90best 1.98
Draw3.58best 3.80
Fenerbahçe3.90best 4.25

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.74best 1.80
Under 2.52.08best 2.14

Both teams to score

Yes1.63best 1.67
No2.15best 2.25

Double chance

Lyon/Draw1.24best 1.27
Lyon/Fenerbahçe1.27best 1.32
Draw/Fenerbahçe1.87best 1.96

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.75best 2.75
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.40best 1.40
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.17best 1.17
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.50best 4.50

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Lyon1.90
Draw3.58 0.18
Fenerbahçe3.90 0.15
23 Aug26 Aug

Model vs market

Lyon win-0.5pp
AI
49%
Market
49.5%
Draw-0.3pp
AI
26%
Market
26.3%
Fenerbahçe win+0.8pp
AI
25%
Market
24.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Standings not available yet.

Pre-match comparison

1.9Goals scored per game2.2
1.3Goals conceded per game1.4

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

M. Mariani

4.03Yellow cards / game
0.1Red cards / game
0.14Penalties scored / game

Based on 29 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Lyon

0-15'
0%
16-30'
16.7%
31-45'
16.7%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
50%
76-90+'
16.7%

Fenerbahçe

0-15'
20%
16-30'
20%
31-45'
10%
46-60'
20%
61-75'
10%
76-90+'
20%

Match statistics

59%Possession41%
Expected goals (xG)
6Shots on target7
17Total shots16
7Shots off target6
4Blocked shots3
12Shots inside the box12
5Shots outside the box4
5Corners7
3Offsides2
12Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
Red cards
6Goalkeeper saves5
450Total passes311
398Accurate passes245
88%Pass accuracy79%

Player ratings

Box score

Lyon

23Tyler MortonM · 86'
6.9
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes36%
Tackles1
Duels33%
6
6T. TessmannM · 76'
6.5
More stats
Shots0/2 on target
Passes29%
Tackles
Duels40%
11
11M. FofanaF · 90'
18.3
More stats
Shots4/4 on target
Passes28%
Tackles
Duels83%
98
🅰️ 16.7
More stats
Shots on target
Passes24%
Tackles
Duels40%
1
1D. GreifG · 90'
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes20%
Tackles
Duels100%
21Ruben KluivertD · 90'
7.0
More stats
Shots on target
Passes65%
Tackles3
Duels56%
19
19M. NiakhatéD · 90'
7.3
More stats
Shots on target
Passes64%
Tackles3
Duels53%
8
7.0
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes40%
Tackles2
Duels50%
16AbnerD · 86'
6.3
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes51%
Tackles1
Duels20%
17
17L. OpendaF · 90'
🟨6.2
More stats
Shots1/3 on target
Passes6%
Tackles
Duels38%
7
7E. NuamahF · 62'
7.0
More stats
Shots on target
Passes11%
Tackles2
Duels50%
Bench (12)
10Pavel ŠulcM · 14'
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes3%
Tackles1
Duels60%
3
3N. TagliaficoD · 11'
6.7
More stats
Shots on target
Passes2%
Tackles
Duels50%
22
2
2M. BidstrupM · 11'
6.7
More stats
Shots on target
Passes3%
Tackles
Duels
40
26
26K. BoudacheF · 28'
6.6
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes5%
Tackles1
Duels67%
99
13
13Z. AthekameD · 28'
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes11%
Tackles1
Duels25%
20

Fenerbahçe

70Oğuz AydınM · 76'
6.9
More stats
Shots1/3 on target
Passes20%
Tackles
Duels50%
31EdersonG · 90'
7.3
More stats
Shots on target
Passes16%
Tackles
Duels100%
🟨6.7
More stats
Shots on target
Passes19%
Tackles3
Duels71%
27Nélson SemedoD · 90'
6.5
More stats
Shots on target
Passes15%
Tackles
Duels25%
3Archie BrownD · 90'
18.2
More stats
Shots2/2 on target
Passes19%
Tackles3
Duels73%
6.5
More stats
Shots0/2 on target
Passes10%
Tackles
Duels29%
91N'Golo KantéM · 90'
7.2
More stats
Shots on target
Passes33%
Tackles2
Duels67%
🟨6.7
More stats
Shots2/2 on target
Passes28%
Tackles1
Duels33%
15Nathan AkéD · 90'
6.7
More stats
Shots on target
Passes18%
Tackles1
Duels57%
11Mason GreenwoodM · 80'
🅰️ 17.0
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes14%
Tackles1
Duels38%
19Vedat MuriqiF · 80'
17.5
More stats
Shots2/2 on target
Passes21%
Tackles
Duels53%
Bench (10)
6.7
More stats
Shots on target
Passes8%
Tackles
Duels50%
45Nene DorgelesF · 14'
🟨6.3
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes9%
Tackles1
Duels20%
6.6
More stats
Shots on target
Passes13%
Tackles2
Duels57%
9Romelu LukakuF · 10'
6.7
More stats
Shots on target
Passes2%
Tackles
Duels67%

More UEFA Champions League predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?+

Our AI model favors Lyon to win, with a 49% probability (Draw 26%, Fenerbahçe 25%).

What time does Lyon vs Fenerbahçe kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 26, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).