FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa — Virsliga

Virsliga· Regular Season - 27

FK Liepaja

3–1Full-time

Grobiņa

WWWLWLGoals 15-155th in league

WWDWLLGoals 9-178th in league

Home7W 2D 3L(23-12)

Away2W 4D 8L(8-31)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

1'E. Oloko (A. Ogunniyi)
25'E. Oloko
43'B. Straalman
46'A. Baydal (A. Aruna)
49'E. Oloko
60'M. Sidorovs (I. Tyshchenko)
65'A. Ogunniyi (A. Leite)
65'A. Korobenko (K. Iljins)
65'E. Rodolphe (I. Mushindi)
75'D. Patijcuks (K. Leidsman)
78'Dodô (I. Tyshchenko)
80'A. Haidara (B. Melnis)
84'K. Leidsman (E. Oloko)
88'A. Puzirevskis (D. Dobrecovs)
90+1'D. Druzinins
90+3'A. Aruna

Lineups unavailable for this match.

FK LiepajaGrobiņa

1.5
Goals/game: 0.9; 1.5
Conceded/game: 1.7

AI match analysis

FK Liepaja win

63%

Draw

22%

Grobiņa win

15%

55.8%BTTS

53.1%Over 2.5

30.1%FK Liepaja clean sheet

20.2%Grobiņa clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests that FK Liepaja enters this match in better form, having secured 3 victories in their last 5 games. In contrast, Grobiņa has struggled recently, losing 4 out of 5. The home advantage also leans towards FK Liepaja, who has a solid home record. Historically, they have had significant success against Grobiņa, further favoring the home side.

FK Liepaja has won 3 of their last 5 matches.
Grobiņa has lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
FK Liepaja's home record shows 6 wins in 11 games this season.
Historically, FK Liepaja has won 4 of the last 5 encounters against Grobiņa.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

100/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors FK Liepaja

Historical edgeFK Liepaja
FK Liepaja have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins
Strong home recordFK Liepaja
FK Liepaja have won 7 of their last 12 home matches.
7/12 home wins
Weak away recordGrobiņa
Grobiņa have won 2 of their last 14 away matches.
2/14 away wins
Sharper attackFK Liepaja
FK Liepaja are averaging 1.5 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked FK Liepaja at 63% — final result was FK Liepaja win, FK Liepaja 3-1 Grobiņa.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (100/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

FK Liepaja ✓1.50market 66.6% · model 63%

Draw3.92market 25.5% · model 22%

Grobiņa5.49market 18.2% · model 15%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

FK Liepaja have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Grobiņa have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5FK Liepaja wins

0Draws

3Grobiņa wins

15-8Goals

Grobiņa

0–1Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 PM

FK Liepaja

2–0Jun 30, 2025, 4:00 PM

Grobiņa

2–0May 10, 2025, 1:00 PM

FK Liepaja

4–1Mar 16, 2025, 5:00 PM

Grobiņa

1–3Oct 26, 2024, 11:00 AM

FK Liepaja

0–1Aug 3, 2024, 3:00 PM

Grobiņa

FK Liepaja

3–0May 29, 2024, 3:00 PM

Grobiņa

3–2Apr 18, 2024, 2:30 PM

FK Liepaja

Odds comparison

Match winner

FK Liepaja1.50▼best 1.65

Draw3.92▼best 4.20

Grobiņa5.49▲best 6.50

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.72▲best 1.80

Under 2.52.01▼best 2.20

Both teams to score

Yes1.80▲best 2.00

No1.89▼best 2.15

Double chance

FK Liepaja/Draw1.11▼best 1.18

FK Liepaja/Grobiņa1.18best 1.22

Draw/Grobiņa2.29▲best 2.50

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.12▼best 1.12

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes5.50▲best 5.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.50▼best 1.50

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.50▲best 2.50

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

FK Liepaja1.50▼ 0.09

Draw3.92▲ 0.02

Grobiņa5.49▲ 1.00

18 Aug – 21 Aug

Model vs market

FK Liepaja win+2.6pp

63%

Market

60.4%

Draw-1.1pp

22%

Market

23.1%

Grobiņa win-1.5pp

15%

Market

16.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.