Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A

Primera A· Clausura - 6

Fortaleza FC

1–2Full-time

Atletico Nacional

DLLLWDGoals 6-1312th in league

WDDWLWGoals 10-91st in league

Home1W 1D 1L(3-2)

Away5W 0D 5L(13-12)

Value found

+1% edge

Fortaleza FC win

5.13AI fair odds

5.18Bookmaker odds

+1%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

31'N. Rodriguez (M. Moreno)
44'Andres Copete (S. Navarro)
45+1'M. Casco
46'C. Arango (A. Morelos)
46'Juan Manuel Rengifo (E. Cardona)
46'A. Sarmiento (I. Poveda)
70'M. Casco (S. Velasquez)
71'S. Navarro (J. Blanco)
71'J. Solis (Jhon Jairo Velásquez)
77'A. Morelos (I. Poveda)
79'J. Herrera (T. Wilke)
79'R. D. Rivas Torres (A. Batioja)
85'E. Cardona
89'Andres Copete
89'E. Cardona
90+2'Joan Cajares
90+6'S. Velasquez
90+8'Goal Disallowed - offside

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Fortaleza FCAtletico Nacional

0.6
Goals/game: 1.0; 1.3
Conceded/game: 0.9

AI match analysis

Fortaleza FC win

19.51%

Draw

27.6%

Atletico Nacional win

52.89%

36.1%BTTS

29.6%Over 2.5

31.7%Fortaleza FC clean sheet

47.2%Atletico Nacional clean sheet

Predicted score: 0-1

Data suggests that Atletico Nacional is significantly stronger, currently sitting at the top of the league with consistent form, including their recent run of 3 wins in the last 5 matches. Fortaleza FC has struggled with just 1 win in their last 5 games and has conceded an average of 1.3 goals per match, indicating potential vulnerabilities against a strong opponent.

Atletico Nacional ranks 1st in the league with 40 points from 19 matches.
Fortaleza FC has a recent form of 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw.
Atletico Nacional has won 5 out of their 10 away matches this season.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

88/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Atletico Nacional

Higher league positionAtletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional sit 11 places above Fortaleza FC in the table.
#1 vs #12
Historical edgeAtletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
4/6 H2H wins
Poor recent formFortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L
Sharper attackAtletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional are averaging 1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Atletico Nacional at 52.89% — final result was Atletico Nacional win, Fortaleza FC 1-2 Atletico Nacional.

Predicted score was 0-1.

This was a high confidence pick (88/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Atletico Nacional ✓1.68market 59.7% · model 52.89%

Draw3.54market 28.2% · model 27.6%

Fortaleza FC5.18market 19.3% · model 19.51%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Fortaleza FC have averaged 0.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Atletico Nacional have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

1Fortaleza FC wins

1Draws

4Atletico Nacional wins

6-14Goals

Atletico Nacional

2–2Aug 17, 2025, 12:30 AM

Fortaleza FC

1–5Mar 5, 2025, 1:30 AM

Atletico Nacional

Fortaleza FC

0–1Oct 27, 2024, 7:00 PM

Atletico Nacional

1–2Apr 5, 2024, 11:10 PM

Fortaleza FC

0–1Jul 24, 2016, 1:00 AM

Atletico Nacional

4–1Apr 7, 2016, 12:45 AM

Fortaleza FC

Odds comparison

Match winner

Fortaleza FC5.18▲best 6.01

Draw3.54▲best 3.70

Atletico Nacional1.68▼best 2.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.98▼best 2.08

Under 2.51.77▲best 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes1.88▲best 1.93

No1.82▼best 1.90

Double chance

Fortaleza FC/Draw2.08▲best 2.30

Fortaleza FC/Atletico Nacional1.25▼best 1.30

Draw/Atletico Nacional1.15▼best 1.25

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.06▲best 4.33

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.21▼best 1.22

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.52▲best 1.57

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.38▼best 2.50

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Fortaleza FC5.18▲ 1.56

Draw3.54▲ 0.33

Atletico Nacional1.68▼ 0.34

20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Fortaleza FC win+1.5pp

19.51%

Market

18%

Draw+1.3pp

27.6%

Market

26.3%

Atletico Nacional win-2.8pp

52.89%

Market

55.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.