Fukuoka S. Hawks vs Orix Buffaloes
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fukuoka S. Hawks | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 7 | 12 | 0 |
 Orix Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 6-4
The data suggests a strong advantage for the Fukuoka S. Hawks, who are leading their division and have a significantly better run differential this season. Despite a turbulent recent performance at home, the Hawks have historically dominated their matchups against the Orix Buffaloes. The Buffaloes, while slightly better in away games, have struggled overall, as reflected in their recent scoring averages and overall record.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks rank 1 in Pacific Division with a 0.618 win percentage.
- Orix Buffaloes rank 4 in the division with a 0.482 win percentage.
- Hawks have scored an average of 6.3 runs while allowing 3.8 runs over their last 10 games.
- Historically, Hawks have won 10 of the last 12 matchups against the Buffaloes.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Fukuoka S. Hawks
- Sharper attackFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks are averaging 5.2 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
5.2/game - Tighter defenseFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks are conceding just 2.7 runs per game over their recent matches.
2.7/game conceded - Historical edgeOrix Buffaloes
Orix Buffaloes have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Higher league positionFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks sit 3 places above Orix Buffaloes in the table.
#1 vs #4
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Fukuoka S. Hawks at 63% — final result was Fukuoka S. Hawks win, Fukuoka S. Hawks 7-1 Orix Buffaloes.
Predicted score was 6-4.
This was a high confidence pick (86/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Fukuoka S. Hawks have averaged 5.2 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Orix Buffaloes have averaged 3.2 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Orix Buffaloes.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Fukuoka S. Hawks | Orix Buffaloes |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 3.20 | 1.32 |
| -3 | 2.88 | 1.35 |
| -2.5 | 2.46 | 1.49 |
| -2 | 2.18 | 1.61 |
| -1.5 | 1.95 | 1.79 |
| -1 | 1.62 | 2.11 |
| -0.5 | 1.45 | 2.58 |
| +0.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.37 | 2.85 |
| 6.5 | 1.51 | 2.43 |
| 7 | 1.62 | 2.17 |
| 7.5 | 1.85 | 1.89 |
| 8 | 1.95 | 1.76 |
| 8.5 | 2.16 | 1.63 |
| 9 | 2.46 | 1.49 |
| 9.5 | 2.73 | 1.41 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 115 | 65 | 50 | +66 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 117 | 63 | 54 | +30 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 116 | 52 | 64 | +5 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 115 | 51 | 64 | -79 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 119 | 51 | 68 | -6 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 112 | 46 | 66 | -74 | 41 | — |
| 1 | Fukuoka S. Hawks | 116 | 72 | 44 | +181 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 119 | 67 | 52 | +37 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 119 | 65 | 54 | +64 | 55 | — |
| 4 | Orix Buffaloes | 118 | 56 | 62 | -71 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 113 | 52 | 61 | -71 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 115 | 45 | 70 | -82 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Fukuoka S. Hawks vs Orix Buffaloes?+
Our AI model favors Fukuoka S. Hawks to win, with a 63% probability (Orix Buffaloes 37%).
What time does Fukuoka S. Hawks vs Orix Buffaloes start?+
First pitch is at Aug 22, 2026, 5:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Fukuoka S. Hawks vs Orix Buffaloes?+
Fukuoka S. Hawks: 2, 0, 0, 0, 4, 0, 1, 0. Orix Buffaloes: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0. Final: 7-1.