Hanshin Tigers vs Yakult Swallows
Value found
+3.6% edgeYakult Swallows win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | X | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hanshin Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
 Yakult Swallows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-3
Data suggests that the Hanshin Tigers are in a stronger position, holding the top rank in their division and boasting a solid home win rate of 55%. Meanwhile, the Yakult Swallows have been struggling, particularly in away games, and their recent performance shows inconsistencies. The last head-to-head match also favored Hanshin, which adds to the statistical argument for their expected success in this matchup.
- Hanshin Tigers have a 59-47 record, placing them first in the Central Division.
- Yakult Swallows have lost 6 of their last 10 games away, contributing to their 49-56 overall record.
- In their last 10 games, Hanshin allowed only 2.6 runs per game, indicating strong pitching performance.
Confidence is high because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Hanshin Tigers
- Good recent formHanshin Tigers
Hanshin Tigers have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Sharper attackYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are averaging 2.7 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
2.7/game - Historical edgeYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 55% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Hanshin Tigers at 55% — final result was Hanshin Tigers win, Hanshin Tigers 2-1 Yakult Swallows.
Predicted score was 4-3.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Hanshin Tigers have averaged 3.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yakult Swallows have averaged 2.7 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Hanshin Tigers are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Yakult Swallows.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Hanshin Tigers | Yakult Swallows |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3.27▲ | 1.30▼ |
| -2 | 3.01▼ | 1.33 |
| -1.5 | 2.38▲ | 1.53▼ |
| -1 | 1.92 | 1.75 |
| -0.5 | 1.58▼ | 2.24▲ |
| +0.5 | 1.51▼ | 2.42▲ |
| +1 | 1.33 | 2.88 |
| +1.5 | 1.30 | 3.24▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 1.39▲ | 2.80▼ |
| 5 | 1.49▲ | 2.49▼ |
| 5.5 | 1.73▲ | 2.04▼ |
| 6 | 1.87▲ | 1.84▼ |
| 6.5 | 2.06▲ | 1.69▼ |
| 7 | 2.42▲ | 1.50▼ |
| 7.5 | 2.72▲ | 1.42▼ |
| 8 | 3.00 | 1.35 |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hanshin Tigers | 115 | 65 | 50 | +66 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 117 | 63 | 54 | +30 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 116 | 52 | 64 | +5 | 45 | — |
| 4 | Yakult Swallows | 115 | 51 | 64 | -79 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 119 | 51 | 68 | -6 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 112 | 46 | 66 | -74 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 116 | 72 | 44 | +181 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 119 | 67 | 52 | +37 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 119 | 65 | 54 | +64 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 118 | 56 | 62 | -71 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 113 | 52 | 61 | -71 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 115 | 45 | 70 | -82 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Hanshin Tigers vs Yakult Swallows?+
Our AI model favors Hanshin Tigers to win, with a 55% probability (Yakult Swallows 45%).
What time does Hanshin Tigers vs Yakult Swallows start?+
First pitch is at Aug 19, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Hanshin Tigers vs Yakult Swallows?+
Hanshin Tigers: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1. Yakult Swallows: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0. Final: 2-1.